Last Wednesday, as reported on our site, it was announced that HBO Max would have the premiere of the second Wonder Woman movie, “Wonder Woman 1984.” The news is one that surprised many fans and entities in the film industry because after various delays it seems that the final decision by the companies involved, such as Warner Bros., will be to have the launch simultaneously for both the streaming platform. as for movie theaters where HBO does not yet have a presence. This movement is one that draws attention, although not precisely because it is something positive but because, in addition to the relevance of the film and its high expectations (considering the success of the first installment), there is the possibility of this strategy to release the film. tape ends up turning everything into a loss for the production and the distributor.
For the first time ever, # WonderWoman1984 will release in theaters and stream exclusively on @ HBOmax * on December 25.
* Available on HBO Max in the US only at no extra cost to subscribers. pic.twitter.com/bU1Lmg5YDA
– Wonder Woman 1984 (@WonderWomanFilm) November 19, 2020
Bad timing for premieres
Over the past few months we have seen how the film industry has had to adjust to operate around the pandemic. As we have commented on previous occasions, many productions have made the decision to delay and postpone their premieres because releasing a film at this time turns out to be a cause that for many is lost since measures to protect the population and in places where there is the possibility of projecting, the confidence of the people is not high enough to fill the cinemas. In that sense, what Wonder Woman 1984 does draws attention because at this point we even have the example of cases that have opted for the streaming route and the cinema at the same time with numbers that may leave much to be desired.
It is enough to go back a few months to see what happened with Mulan; What would be Disney’s next great live action work, I made a similar decision to take its premiere to the company’s streaming platform, however, despite the fact that Disney + has had significant growth, the most recent figures that exist in this regard They show that their total collection has remained at a total of 69 million 949 thousand 535 dollars, much less than the 200 million that were invested in its production, so from a business perspective it has not turned out to be a good move.
However, it seems that doing it in a traditional way using only the movie theaters is not either, the premieres that have been made of great films in these months have also fallen short compared to their expectations. The most relevant example also belongs to Warner Bros. and it is TENET. To date, it has been identified that the film directed by Christopher Nolan managed to raise 353 million 575 thousand 948 dollars globally, a figure that leaves it as one of the lowest grossing films of this director and that is also less than 500 million that it needed to cover the investment that its production and distribution had.
In that sense, the movement that Wonder Woman plans to make is one that looks risky on all sides, although it is expected that it will save things given its popularity. On the one hand, it would be expected that with this premiere, which unlike Mulán will not have an extra cost in streaming, it will be the great push that HBO Max needs to be a more serious rival for platforms such as Netflix or Disney +, and for On the other hand, it is expected that it will achieve good numbers at the box office where it will be available considering that it has been one of the most anticipated films of the year and with the highest power, it is enough to remember that the first installment of this heroine managed to collect more than 800 million dollars at the box office worldwide.
However, for analysts, none of the above may be fulfilled or that things may not happen as expected. In the case of movie theaters, it should be taken into account that not many may be open as outbreaks have been registered and various countries have had to re-impose isolation measures so that Covid-19 infections do not increase , this could make the premiere of the film one that is more limited than it will already be with the current scenario. If this happens, the weight would fall in the section of streaming with HBO Max where the numbers may rise, but not enough to compensate for everything. According to Forbes, even if Wonder Woman 1984 on HBO Max led to a not inconsiderable five million new subscribers, that would still represent little, it would be like $ 75 million in new monthly revenue, an amount below 150 million. dollars the studio could get from theaters, ideally, on national opening weekend alone. Thus, to achieve an amount close to 350 million, which would be the profits for the study in a scenario far from the pandemic, the firm would require a titanic effort. To make up for that figure through an offer just like a streaming title on HBO Max, you would have to either get 24 million new subscribers (paying $ 15 each) or (for example) catch 5 million subscribers and have none of them cancel. for five months.
Unfortunately, there are no guarantees that bringing the tape to the streaming platform will lead to a large number of new permanent subscribers for HBO Max. However, there is something Warner Bros. can do to avoid all this scenario: delay the premiere again and take it to the summer of 2021.
By that time of premieres, a more positive and safe scenario can be seen where it could take advantage of its full potential at the box office and if that is what Warner Bros. is looking for with this film, then it may be the best way to go. Of course, you would not be alone considering all the films that will be released for that season, but there will be enough space and possibly more people in theaters if the estimates that the vaccine for Covid-19 will be ready by the first quarter are met. of the next year.