With which leading company you can earn 45% per year in dollars and what are the risks

In today’s negative rate world, having a leading company, known for its top-of-the-line brand, pay 45% annually in dollars is not to be overlooked.

“Logically, where there are juicy promised returns, there is risk. But for those who want to risk and put a file on this company, they should know that the income statement shows losses, with trampled income and rising costs, ”warns financial analyst Mauro Cognetta.

It refers to the negotiable obligation of Mastellone, La Serenísima trading company, which can be entered with a minimum of US $ 100 and has an internal rate of return of 45% per year in dollars.

You can also enter with pesos at the value of the Stock Exchange dollar, with the advantage that the MEP dollar it’s always cheaper than the blue dollar, and it is a way to dollarize pesos at $ 150.

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The advantage of this ON is that it is negotiated in both dollars and pesos, and that you can come and go at any time in either of the two currencies, always respecting the parking that CNV has just lowered from 72 hours to 48.

If the flow of funds for interest and amortizations is taken, who enters today and leaves to finish, which is July 3, would be buying dollars at $ 120, as long as Mastellone does not defaulte of course. That is precisely where the risk is.

The advantage is that the next amortization, 6.31%, is already collected on January 3, while the other is collected on July 3, since its coupon is 12.625% per year, payable semi-annually.

The global program is for $ 400 million, aired on July 3, 2014 and expires next year. The F series that is with the MTCFD ticker, came out in the middle of that global program and is entered with $ 91 for a sheet of $ 100.

You receive US $ 6.31 on January 3 of interest and US $ 106.31 on July 3 for amortization plus interest. Last November 3, they presented a new program, for another US $ 500 million, where the remarkable thing is that they decided not to qualify, for which they do not have a risk rating.

Federico Broggi, from IEB, warns that in addition to the company’s inherent risks, ONs with close maturities have a systemic risk that causes them to trade at such high yields: “It is the unknown whether the BCRA will allow it to access foreign exchange to pay the debt or if it will ask them to restructure said maturities or a part of them as it did with the provision of 15-S with the maturities of 2020 ”.

In this sense, Broggi believed that it is a company that, although its operating result is positive, the net (after interest) is not and the 45% return is reasonable and shows its risks. However, it is a very attractive return for small portions of equity in more risky investors.

Rafael Di Giorno, director of Proficio, He warns that in Latin America in general, and in Argentina in particular, corporate bonds are traded much less than sovereigns, so it is always advisable to look at their liquidity.

For its part, Herman Schvarz, head of the ETR consultancy noted that « considering the current situation of the company, and the context of pandemic, It is a risky move for the conservative investor. Although the food sector should prop up the economy in the coming months, and the rates are very attractive, we must not lose focus on what many companies and financial products in our country experienced last year and now. A high risk must be assumed in this type of product, although without forgetting that we are talking about one of the largest companies in the country ”.

In the financial statements that the company presented in the last nine months an increase in expenses and costs due to Covid-19 by different health measures as a result of the pandemic and the hiring of temporary personnel, to replace those people affected by the disease or in risk groups.

In turn, he emphasizes that he did not receive any type of economic assistance or any kind from the State. In addition, they underline that they suffer an involuntary delay in sales prices in the face of rising costs.

They list that a strong development of export activity is expected in the last quarter of the year, to take advantage of the greater seasonal availability of raw milk in line with the business strategy.

On the other hand, they emphasize the plans aimed at incorporating productivity, either by managing the product portfolio or by changes or improvements in operational, commercial and administrative processes.