The Severance Pay Fund (FGTS), which historically lost in profitability to inflation and all investment modalities, has become one of the best applications for the worker when compared to other fixed income alternatives. Compensates the shareholder with a 3% per year and, thus, already tied with Selic, surpasses the savings account, which pays to savers 70% of Selic, and the average yield of the Bank Deposit Certificate (CDB), of 85% of CDI, which is still subject to Income Tax (IR) collection.
The advantage of the FGTS income over other investments may increase even more in June, when the Copom should make another cut in the basic interest rate, from 0.50 or 0.75 percentage point, for 2.50% or 2.25% per year, according to expectations of financial market analysts. In January, for comparison purposes, the CDI yielded to the investor 0.38%. Now in May, with the most recent drop in the Selic rate, CDI started to pay 0.23%. FGTS, in turn, yielded 0.25%.
Such comparisons serve to show that, within the fixed income universe, leaving money standing in the fund can be a good option. A Caixa Econômica Federal program has been in force since last year, allowing workers to withdraw portions of their FGTS balance on their birthday. The government’s objective, with the program, is to inject resources into the country’s weak economy.
According Austin Rating Chief Economist Alex Agostini, for the worker who can get through the current crisis without having to use his FGTS balance, the best he does is to leave the money standing there.
“FGTS today is a good application because it is giving 3% per year and its rule does not change with the Selic and savings movements. So, the fund will have at least 0.50% of real profitability in the year (discounting inflation) “, predicts the economist. He projects that inflation should close 2020 around 2.50% and Selic in 2.25% per year.
In January, when the Selic was in 4.50% per year, the CDI yielded 0.38% per month; the CBD, 0.32%; savings, 0.26% and FGTS, 0.25%.
In May, when the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) Central Bank (BC) reduced the Selic to 3% per year, the CDI paid 0.23% per month; the CBD, 0.20%; the savings0.17%; and FGTS, 0.25%. It is worth noting that, in the case of the CDB, the IR rate varies according to the time of application.
For June, the month in which Austin Rating projects that the Selic will fall 0.75 percentage point for 2.25% per year, the CDI should yield 0.19% per month, the CDB will pay 0.16%, savings will pay off 0.13% and FGTS, 0.25% per month. All CDI and CDB returns were calculated based on an IR rate of 22.5%.
Still, according to Agostini, in December 2019, when the Selic was in 4.50% a year, a worker who had also invested R $ 1,000 in CDI, CDB, savings and FGTS, in December this yearafter 12 months, would have earned income from 2.31% at the CDI, 1.06% at the CBD, 2.04% savings and 3.00% at FGTS.
When calculations are made considering the Selic of May, 3% per year, and assuming that it will be reduced in June to 2.25% per year, thus remaining until May 2021, the yield of R $ 1,000 in the CDI will be 1.83%. In the CDB it will be 1.56%, in savings, of 1.58%, and FGTS, dand 3%. The profitability of all investments does not take inflation into account. If the IPCA rate were discounted, the yield would be even lower and, in some cases, even negative.
According to Caixa Econômica Federal, at the end of 2018, the total assets of FGTS was R $ 529.2 billion – the bank always closes the balance sheet for the previous year in the month of August of the following year. The 2019 balance sheet will be closed only in August this year.
BC cuts Selic to 3% per year