The arrival of Joe Biden to the US Presidency could provoke a change in US strategy vis-à-vis countries of Latin America unruly to the dictates of Washington consisting of the substitution of the “soft hits “ by the so-called Kentian strategy. (the “carrot and stick”) exposed by Sherman Kent in his book “Strategic Intelligence for North American World Politics” (1949). The purposes of these types of war were described by this author as follows: “in these unconventional wars it is about doing two things: weaken the enemy’s will and resistance and strengthen one’s own will and ability to win.” Later on he adds that the instruments of economic warfare “consist of the carrot and the stick”: “the blockade, the freezing of funds, the ‘boycott’, the embargo and the black list on the one hand; subsidies, loans, bilateral treaties, barter and commercial agreements for another ”. In the specific case of Venezuela, after the failure of the stick tactic used by Trump, the Biden Administration would be studying implementing the carrot tactic, in the form of relaxing the restrictions currently in force on Venezuelan oil that could lead to the constitution of joint ventures between Chevron and PDVSA to revitalize the once driving activity of the Venezuelan economy and facilitate a Transitional Government that will prepare a General Election in 2022 under the auspices of the delegation of the Kingdom of Norway.
Elections in Venezuela in 2022?
Maduro’s decision to confiscate the General Motors plant was seen by the Trump Administration as an attack against the interests of US multinationals, a scenario that will be exploited by the US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, former President and CEO of Exxon Mobil when it was nationalized in 2007 by Hugo Chávez, to attempt a coup against Maduro. Exxon Mobil would be part of the Fourth Branch of the US Government, a true shadow Power that makes decisions in foreign policy and at the request of Tillerson, the Chavista revolution has already been declared a “dangerous enemy of the US.” In addition, the Chinese-Venezuelan agreement by which the Chinese state petrochemical company Sinopec will invest 14,000 million dollars to achieve a daily oil production of 200,000 barrels per day of crude in the Orinoco Oil Belt, (considered the most abundant oil field of the world), it would be a missile on the waterline of US global geopolitics (whose unequivocal objective would be to dry up China’s energy sources). Tillerson affirmed that “We are evaluating our political options, reviewing what we can do to create a change in conditions from which, Maduro decides that he has no future and decides to leave power on his own or that we can return to constitutional processes. to its Constitution “, a whole declaration of intent that was reflected in the implementation of sanctions against Venezuela of the countries that surround it to turn it into” besieged territory and ready to be engulfed. “
After a systematic and intense destabilizing campaign based on the selective shortages of basic necessities, obscene speculation, the amplification in the media of growing citizen insecurity, the taking of the streets by the opposition and the application of sanctions to Venezuelan crude to cause the default or cessation of payments and after the Guaidó fiasco, we would be witnessing a change in the North American strategy with respect to Venezuela. Thus, the United States is pursuing the formation of a Transitional Government made up of consensus figures from both the opposition and Chavismo that will have to prepare a new Presidential Election for 2022, a task for which the participation of Cuba is essential to achieve the consensus of Chavistas and opponents under the auspices of the delegation of the Kingdom of Norway that would already be operational and making informal contacts between the parties.