(Bloomberg) – A surge in global vaccine supplies in the second half will trigger a burst of growth that will boost riskier assets, according to an analysis by strategist Jens Nordvig, who is paid thousands of dollars a month by the financial elite to to obtain information on investment flows in the world.
Although reopenings around the world are tempered by new waves of COVID-19, especially as the availability of vaccinations in many emerging markets lags behind that in developed nations, the landscape is changing, Nordvig wrote in a note, founder of New York-based research firm Exante Data. Yes, deadly variants of the coronavirus are wreaking havoc in many emerging nations, and in Indonesia the battle against one more contagious strain of the coronavirus is intensifying. But this will not last.
“The global picture is going to improve dramatically,” said Nordvig, who in 2016 left Nomura Holdings Inc. after five years as Wall Street’s top-ranked currency strategist to found his own company serving a rarefied group of hedge funds. who need their hard-to-find flow data.
Vaccine exports from the European Union and the United States “will increase in the coming months, as a function of both increased production and reduced local demand in those regions,” he wrote. “This will be a huge factor for emerging markets.”
Exante’s flagship global flow analysis product aggregates fund managers’ positioning in fixed income and currencies to identify extremes and provide signals for future movements.
“The reverse cliff effect for global vaccine supply means that the vast majority of emerging market countries can reach critical levels of protection during the second half of 2021, allowing the safe reopening of most sectors,” said Nordvig. . “This will support global growth significantly in the coming quarters, with positive implications for the economic performance of emerging markets and global risk assets.”
Original Note: Asset-Flows Guru Says Vaccine Jump to Catapult Emerging Markets
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