-This week Powell appeared before the House of Representatives and assured that “the economy shows a sustained improvement.” How are the Wall Street indices reacting?
-Powell’s intervention did not make investors very nervous and on Friday we had the post-maturity decline of derivatives.
After the derivatives expiration, the following week is usually negative, but nevertheless, in this case we are seeing the opposite.
Those who are now holding the market are the retailers.
From the end of June to the middle of July we have a positive seasonal pattern with a return in the last 10 years of 3.78%. From mid-July to the end of September we have a negative or lateral seasonal period.
The market is clearly breaking and, in this period, until the inflation data is given again on July 13, it is expected to be 4.7%. The Fed has said that it does not think it is interesting to have inflation above 5%. In principle that could make the market nervous but in the short term the market may remain positive.
The indicators are crossed to the upside. The S&P 500 is about to attack the area of 4,266, the latest highs, and in case of breaking it we would have the top of the ascending wedge that could be around 4,370-4,380.
Also positive on the Nasdaq where we have an inverted shoulder head shoulder figure activated with a target of 14,475. In addition, a triangle could have broken, which could indicate that we are going to the top of the bullish channel in which it is located, the 15,290-15,300 area. We might have an extra boost before the market jitters.
The Russell 2000: strong rebounds and trying to attack the upper part of the lateral range, in this case resistance at 2,350.
The market is positive, the derivatives maturity has been taken very well. We are in a seasonal period between now and mid-July, which is usually positive.
-What can be expected from the European stock markets in the short term? Does a specific index stand out?
-They have suffered more than the American market after the maturities of derivatives. We have had negative sessions, however, the trend is still bullish.
In the case of the EuroStoxx we have activated a kind of lateral range broken by the upper part after correcting towards the previous support around 4,033. From here it would not be ruled out to see a goal towards 4,207.
In the case of Dax, theoretical target for lateral range breakout towards 16,200. As long as it is above 15,278, that would be the most likely scenario. It would have to have an upward bias even if it is consolidating in the short term. If it exceeds the guideline that joins the decreasing highs, the area of 15,675, it could make us think that it would go up to 16,200.
-The Ibex 35 is trading in the area of 9,000 points. Where do you see resistances and supports?
-We see a correction in the last few days. If we join the succession of rising lows, where it stopped on Monday – where a candle with a long upper wick left us – that could be a support zone to take into account, 8,900.
We would have a small very short-term lateral range between 8,900 and 9,100. If it exceeds 9,100 we could think positively looking for the part of the channel.
If it loses 8,900, we could suggest that the probable scenario is a correction towards the 8,830 area, which is where the average of 100 passes.
Most likely, it will break above, like the rest of the European indices and we have already found support at those 8,900.
-On the one hand, is it time to enter mmpp? On the other, three values that you consider interesting within the Spanish continuous market.
-The brent is very strong. The expectation of economic growth and higher consumption in summer means that the price continues to rise. It broke a triangle at the top, exceeding $ 71 per barrel and setting a theoretical target towards the $ 80.45 area.
Most likely, he will finally fulfill it. This scenario would be deactivated if losing 64.45, very far from those levels. The fact that oil may continue to rise is another sign that inflation may rise in the summer, with periods of uncertainty awaiting Jackson Hole in August.
In the case of gold, after breaking up the bearish channel that guided the price since August 2020, it has had a correction towards the 61.8% Fibonacci, holding the previous support and we will see if it tries to start from there. If it exceeds $ 1,800, we could think of an additional bounce and if it recovered the guideline we would think positive.
In the continuous market, we have Sacyr, with a second upward momentum activated with a 2.48 target; after a correction and leaning on the mean of 100, it is likely to continue its positive trend. We have a falling wedge that normally has bullish implications if it breaks the 2.18-2.19 area.
Metrovacesa has a double bottom target activated at 8.87 and, for now, in the corrective phase. As long as it holds previous supports, we must wait to see if it gives any pause to turn to position ourselves bullish.
Oryzon Genomics has theoretical target per second bullish momentum activated. After leaning on the 3.4 area, he is trying to rebound and improve. Potential theoretical target at 5 euros.