A few days ago in a local interview that I was doing, he commented that I saw on public television, within our soporific confinement by COVID-19, 15 to 20 days ago, some very well “peinás” and very well “pagás” girls that spoke of the Spanish economy coming out of this crisis, graphically making an asymmetric V. They announced some macro numbers that they were going to send to Europe to see that we were trustworthy people and to lend us everything we needed, because the grandmother has to keep going to bingo every night and we have to finance it as much, both the bingo card , like the pack of tobacco you need, as long as you don’t contradict it and that you don’t find out that the family is ruined.
Coincidentally, a few days later, when they sent the macro data to Brussels, they sent other data than what was announced on TV that afternoon of my soporific confinement.
Well, I leave you the graph of the Ibex 35 which I think is the best indicator of the projection of the Spanish economy and each one who forces his eyes until he sees the asymmetric V, because for my part I am almost cross-eyed and blind from Both straining my eyes, but I have not been able to see the aforementioned figure.
For those who do not know the Lumaga System I clarify that the numbers in parentheses that always add up to 50 are the so-called director values. The rest is easily understandable.
Well, we already know that the stock market is not the same as the economy, but with some advancement the profiles are similar and in view of the figure that draws the graph in recent weeks we did not find any similarity with a V and rather with a totally fallen L and that in the most optimistic case of restarting the rise could make a fairly open U, but very far from the V. The “asymmetric” I do not know the meaning of the term in economic jargon and I would not be surprised if it were A word like “de-escalation” that turns out to not exist, according to the RAE, at least a month ago when I consulted it, that’s what the RAE told me.
I leave the link to the article of the de-escalation for someone who did not enter the page that week and is collecting words without definition, which I say, of course there are no such words in the dictionaries we can interpret them as we please, that is They are valid for everything and as my grandmother used to say, they are valid for a broken person as well as for an unseen one.
The week we have just finished has been one of consolidation and attack at previous maximum levels within this latest rebound. They lack strength to break, but once they break, if they do break, they have a fairly comfortable stretch until they reach the levels of the MM200 in the DAX 30, MDAX 50 or the Russell 2000 and the mutual funds and Pension plans can make a good recovery, despite COVID-19 and its devastating consequences on our health and the economy.
In the previous article, I announced that I was going to put the DAX 30 in monthly candles, that although we do not follow it in our detection system of changes in trends such as the LUMAGA SYSTEM, since we use weekly candles more suitable for handling of investment funds and pension plans, however from time to time you have to go to the monthly terms, since the monthly candles are very suitable to have an overview of the medium term, although they are not worth us to maneuver with the funds investment or pension plans that require more agility and more while we are threatened by the COVID-19 bug.
Whenever I have drawn a wave chart I have warned that I am not very understanding of Elliot waves, apart from that each reader on the same chart can take different reading and justify it totally in a coherent way. Throughout the time that we have been taking out articles on Bags, this graphic has been taken on different occasions, although naturally it ended at previous moments.
To highlight how well the waves that make up the cycle look.
On previous occasions when wave 5, now reclassified as 5 ‘, ended, I already said that wave 6 could come and then wave 7. However, you will see that I have modified the count and put a wave 6F (6 false) and then not wave 7 but 5 ”, because for it to have been a true wave 7 it is necessary that it had adequately surpassed wave 5 ‘, something that did not occur, in other words, both wave 6 (which as such must disappear due to have run out of content) as wave 7, in my opinion have been diluted and will not occur.
As many of you will know Elliot’s wave theory, it forces the waves to be increasing above and below, without being able to get the next wave below a previous one, a rule that has been violated so far in the year 2020, not so earlier in this cycle, as easily seen in the chart above.
Two anomalies to highlight, if there had been a wave 6, the next one has gotten underneath. The 5 ”has remained at the same level as the 5, so it has made a double maximum or double the ceiling of the first hand manual of the stock market and the consequences are usually bad, although we re-entered the RV about a month ago.
As the waves are produced we will number and readjust them. At the moment, since April 28 we have been in RV of all the indices that we follow, precisely because we have not followed the indices in monthly periods, but weekly, and at the moment it seems that we have been successful, or rather our system of detection of changes in Trends has been correct when seeing the alignment of HA sails, ropes, CHVAs and VDs, because the rest is sewing and singing.
I leave you a malillo joke from when the Stock Market operated through the corros, as I explained in an article on the corros in Spain.
* Pepe, a stockbroker, is resting on a more than deserved beach vacation with his wife. So while he is half asleep, his wife tells him … “Pepe the tide is rising” and suddenly jumps: BUY !!, BUY !! *
Well, that, we have to rest even in the soporific confinement of level 1 or 21, because we do not know how many levels they are going to put us, and take advantage of it to take away the stress and incidentally if we take advantage of our furniture investment funds and plans pensions go up, well better than better.
Our motto continues to be: Bags are unpredictable, but they have never been anarchic.
From the Stock Market only I have to ask you to take care of yourself.