▲ In Mexico City many small businesses are still closed due to the pandemic.Photo La Jornada
La Jornada newspaper
Tuesday May 26, 2020, p. 2. 3
The crisis generated by the Covid-19 pandemic will mark the 21st century for the responses we derive from it; In this sense, a vaccine and the drug must necessarily involve a focus of international cooperation. We must insist that the solution is that to resume productive activities, explained Graciela Márquez Colín, head of the Ministry of Economy (SE).
Without these, there will be no complete reactivation because while some areas are launched, others will lag behind, acknowledged the official during the presentation of the study Development challenges before Covid-19 in Mexico. Socioeconomic Overview, from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).
Five months after the virus began to claim victims, different countries are working at full speed to find the antidote. The most complete work is that of China, where the medical publication The Lancet highlighted that the clinical trial reported to be safe, well tolerated and capable of generating immunity in humans.
Márquez Colín added that the recession will have lasting impacts and will imply a change of era for economic policy. Previous measures, such as those of just over a decade ago, left the social and economic protection system with strong limitations.
According to the UNDP study, which consulted 19 academic experts, from the public, private and international financial organizations, it is expected that by October 2020, the gross domestic product (GDP) will contract 8.7 percent in Mexico and 3.8 in United States, the Mexican mix will be sold at $ 14 per barrel and the exchange rate will be at 24.73 pesos per dollar.
In this regard, Márquez replied that it is important to consider that in one month the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) enters into force, this amid protectionist airs in international trade. He trusted that the agreement will involve repeating the engine of growth, as happened in 1995 with the FTA.
He added that for a couple of days oil was trading at zeros, but these declines no longer hit the economy because the country long ago ceased to be a crude exporter. However, public finances are limited in terms of spending and indebtedness.
For his part, Lorenzo Jiménez de Luis, resident representative of the UNDP in Mexico, stressed that until now there is general uncertainty about how severe the parallel crises due to the coronavirus –health and economic– will be in the Mexican economy, can be the apocalyptic scenarios provided by some financial institutions or more moderate estimates.
Cynthia Martínez Domínguez, coordinator of sustainable objectives of UNDP, said that among the recommendations to Mexico, priority should be given to supporting households, with a basic basket for the informal sector, people in poverty and the elderly; to companies, with credits and subsidies, and there must be a public debt leveraged with fiscal and austerity measures, considering the differentiated effects by gender and those for economic reactivation in consensus with the states.