The investment roadmap. Attentive to the changes that come
Let’s go by parts, if in 2020 the US has once again been the winner of the stock markets worldwide due to its high exposure in technology, the Nasdaq has beaten all the indices and the SP500 has also risen although less than the technological selective . Spain, on the other hand, with the Ibex 35 that did not come back, has remained as one of the red lanterns of the world stock markets.
The Nasdaq has risen from March lows 70%, the S&P 500 45% and the Ibex 35 only 10%.
But as we see the NASDAQ and S&P 500 have recovered their pre-pandemic prices, but the Ibex still has more than 20% left to return to the previous normality.
And this is where the opportunities come, as we see in this report, investors are bypassing the markets in the US, The rise has already been considerable by the analysis houses and fund managers that are betting on European equities that have been left off the hook in the markets.
See the exit of money from the US stock exchanges Only in the falls of March last year was such a strong exit seen.
Expensive USA, cheap Europe
The next point to take into account is inflation, the increase in economic activity has brought the premature rise in raw materials, from oil, copper … and even China is exporting inflation, since it cannot meet all the demands activity they are having.
According to the Global Investors Main Report, investors should be prepared for rising prices and therefore the onset of inflation
The pandemic, which brought with it large-scale fiscal stimulus measures after the initial demand crisis, the shutdowns of economies and the recovery driven by vaccines, which have caused a change in the dynamics of inflation, especially in certain segments .
And inflation brings an immediate effect, and that is that central banks are going to see if they can withdraw the entire debt purchase package that they have had – bad for companies that have increased their treasury shares a lot, as is the case in the United States. – and on the other hand, especially in Europe, which has a current inflation rate of close to 2%, we will see if there are increases in interest rates. It may only be half a point rises.
But of course, those increases in interest rates, that capital outflow from the US stock market and that increase in economic activity in Europe that together with the attractive prices that many values currently have, make investment opportunities to be found in Europe. and within the Spanish stock market. Macroeconomic movements are coming, Europe remains cheap and has revaluation potential.
What companies can be an opportunity to invest?
If we combine the panorama that is being presented to us, the EU stimulus measures that go towards digitization, energy transformation, health and process optimization and finally due to the mergers and adjustments that have been carried out by many sectors of the economy and from the stock market, some winning sectors and stocks come out.
For example, Caixabank is a financial institution that, with the merger with Bankia, clearly has very large cost synergies, if we also think that small increases in interest rates may come, this value will take on that potential in the increases. This is how he explains it to us Eduard O´Loghlen, director of investor relations at Caixabank on the investment committee that we had with him.
Holaluz, a small Barcelona electricity and gas marketer, is revolutionizing the installation of solar panels. Its president Carlota Pi explained it to us in another investment committee what did we have with her
Laboratorios Rovi, a flagship pharmaceutical company that is much more than the manufacturer in Spain of the Modern vaccine, has a portfolio of products that makes them leaders in the markets where they operate, he told us Marta Campos, director of relations at Rovi.
Atrys Health, a telemedicine and diagnostic testing company that is one of the candidates to enter the continuous market, its CFO Jose María Huch told us in a meeting with analysts his perspectives.
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