Next, we give answers to the values for which we have been asked the most throughout the morning. José María Rodríguez, technical analyst at Bolsamanía, analyzes Atresmedia, ArcelorMittal, Carnival, Boeing, AMD, euro / dollar, Telefónica and Royal Caribbean.
Good morning, José María. Iván called me from Bilbao. I would like to know what you think about A3media, ArcelorMittal and the cruise company Carnival. Which one do you see the greatest potential for recovery? Thank you.
Dear reader, good afternoon. Atresmedia It is one of the most bearish values in our market by far. Although the corrective phase goes a long way, since in mid-2015 it marked prices at the level of 11 euros. That said and rebounds apart, the truth is that the corrective phase is still there, intact. Decreasing maxima and minima follow one another and thus do not go up. But it is that even if it bounced (and I’m not saying it will) towards the resistance, before support, of 3.10 euros nothing would really change. Everything would fit within the typical ‘pull back’ to the old bullish guideline, now resistance. Either things change a lot or I am afraid that this will seek the historical lows at 1.50 euros in the medium term.
As to ArcelorMittal All we know is that it has filled 50% of the weekly bearish gap of 11.55 euros and there we have been turned down. And that there is a key support in the annual and historical lows: 5.95-6 euros. In other words, the long-term or bullish risk-return equation is achieved at the closest possible price levels to said support and as long as, in weekly candles, it does not close below. As the main resistance zone we have the last decreasing maximum at 10.82 euros and above the weekly bearish gap that we have previously referred to.
Finally, regarding Carnival It is a title that is in a rebound or reaction phase after a collapse from the February highs of 85%. It presents significant resistance at the level of approximately $ 16-17 (level that functioned as a support in 2008 and 2009). Only above the resistance of $ 17 (last decreasing maximum) will we leave the door open to the possibility that the price will continue to bounce towards resistance levels close to $ 26-27 (weekly bearish gap in mid-March). Thank you very much, greetings.
Good morning, José María. In early May I entered Boeing at the price of $ 132 based on an analysis that you. performed in this same section and I also bought AMD for $ 52. My intention is to maintain the position for a couple of years. What do you think of these long-term titles? What trend do they present? Thanks for that section that I never miss. Greetings from Cáceres. D.R.
Dear investor, good afternoon. Boeing It is a title that I do not dislike at all in long term terms and always based on the very long term bullish channel (since 1982) in which the price is embedded. So although very violent, the latest falls have found ground at the base of this channel, by definition support. Then, to the extent that the stock continues to move within said long-term bullish channel, we understand that the conditions are in place for it, with its falls against trend, to try to restructure again upwards and in long-term terms.
Regarding the manufacturer of microprocessors AMD, It is a clearly bullish title in terms of medium and long term, as it happens with technology in general. It is clear to maintain because, in addition, the price has been moving within an impeccable bullish channel since the beginning of 2019. At the moment, the upper part of the channel passes through the environment of $ 70. Thank you very much, greetings.
Hello, Mr. Rodríguez. How do you see the euro / dollar? Do you still believe that it can lose parity? I am bearish on the euro from the 1.1430 area. Greetings and thanks for everything.
Dear reader, good afternoon. Despite the rebound of the euro / dollar in recent days the truth is that nothing has really changed. Everything continues to fit within a simple rebound (reaction phase) within an impeccable bottom or primary downtrend. In fact, it is enough to observe the bearish channel through which the underlying is moving from the highs of 2008. As the main support area we have the lows of 2017 at 1.0339. If this support were to end up drilling we will not rule out a new bearish momentum towards the base of the channel, now at $ 0.90 / euro. And the upper part of the channel currently passes through 1.1850. Thanks to you, greetings.
Very good, José María. I am a regular reader of your analysis on Bolsamanía. And I would like to know if you believe It may be a good time to open longs for the coming years at Telefónica and the Royal Caribbean cruise company. As they say, when nobody wants them, it is when you have to invest in them. I’m wrong? Greetings from Lanzarote. I.HR.
Dear reader, good afternoon. I am not saying that current prices do not end up demonstrating over the years that we are facing a clear moment to get on the shopping train. In fact, it is true that in the face of such important falls, experience tells us that on many occasions (but not always) prices end up trading much higher years later. But the truth is that, since we do not have a return figure of any kind, nobody says that Telefónica it cannot fall any further and even pierce the March lows and keep falling. The only thing that we know, technically speaking, is that if we believe that great double ceiling we can expect that the falls will continue in the coming months without ruling out even price levels close to 2.70 euros (2002 lows).
As to Royal caribbean I tell him the same thing as what was said in his most direct competitor Carnival. That said, what we have before us is a potential ascending triangle that, if it is fulfilled, although before the price should confirm above the resistance of $ 48.60, it could launch it to much higher levels. Now, it is important that under no circumstances is the support that it presents at $ 31.40 (the last rising minimum) pierced. A greeting.
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