“We deserved so much more“,”the ball did not want to enter“,”it’s a matter of time before we mark“… Does it sound like? They are phrases sung by the Spanish internationals and Luis Enrique throughout this European Championship. Of course, until the overwhelming victory against Slovakia, it was not valued that the excuses by many considered hid a reality. The National Team has attacked a lot and has generated enough chances to have closed the first phase with full victories. It is not an opinion, it is statistics. In fact, Spain is the team that should have scored the most goals of the entire championship.
The Expected Goals is a statistical record that measures all the details surrounding an occasion: from the position of the players, through the speed of the ball, the angle, the trajectory, to the probability that the ball ends up in the net from that point from the field. In other words, it is the most accurate way to translate offensive football into data. A good example of this is the great goal by Schick, from the Czech Republic, from the center of the field. The scale indicated that only 1% of the plays ended in a goal. That is, it had a 0.01. The low probability that the footballer was given was due to aspects such as the goalkeeper being ahead or having space to set up the launch.
Most xG created in the Group Stage at Euro 2020: #ESP – 9.39 (6⚽️) #NED – 9.20 (8⚽️) #POR – 7.34 (7⚽️) #ITA – 6.89 (7⚽️)
– The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) June 24, 2021
According to this variable, Spain should have scored a total of 9.39 goals in the first phase of the Eurocup. Finally, the arreón against Slovakia allowed Luis Enrique and his team to celebrate six. There is room for improvement in the success, especially when the marker tightens. And men like Morata or Gerard Moreno they have not had the precision they are accustomed to. Penalties have also influenced: two pulled, two missed.
The truth is that it is more normal to be below the Expected Goal, although the National Team compensated with the success against Slovakia everything that was wrong in the previous duels. Spain leads the ‘deserved’ goals, ahead of Netherlands, Portugal and Italy. The former are the top scorers in the group stage with eight goals. Statistics reveal that they deserved 9.20. They did not generate as much, but their percentages are considerably higher than in Spain.
Portugal and Italy celebrated seven goals, with revealing precision. Those of Fernando Santos should have converted 7.34, while those of Mancini exceed their expectations: 6.89. This data, of course, speaks of the lack of success of Spain. But there is a deeper conclusion that invites optimism. The National Team has conceded only one goal and has not conceded too many chances to the rival. And, in addition, it is the one that has generated the most above. Other giants such as England, France or Germany do not appear in the ranking. His rivals were more complicated perhaps, although they have not shown their best version. Who knows if that “the ball did not want to enter” could take ours very far if the variables change …
https://twitter.com/xGPhilosophy/status/1408026041818488832 Six teams remain undefeated on xG so far at Euro 2020: # ITA # DEN # NED # ENG # ESP # GER
– The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) June 23, 2021
Morata, only behind Cristiano Ronaldo
The Portuguese star has already scored five goals so far in the championship. In addition, as usual, he has done it with total efficiency: he generated 4.90 points. He is the only one who is ahead of Morata in this. The Spanish striker should have scored 3.22, but has only transformed one. The missed penalty against Slovakia, the heads-up against Sweden … Juventus has been criticized for his mistakes, but his performance has not been bad and is another of those who is expected to fulfill the star phrase: ” It is a matter of time before we mark … “. Havertz Y Depay they have celebrated one more than the one chosen by Luis Enrique, deserving 2.83 and 2.71 respectively.
Race for the xGolden Boot at Euro 2020: #POR 𝗖. 𝗥𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗱𝗼 – 4.90 (5⚽️) #ESP 𝗔. 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗮 – 3.22 (1⚽️) #GER 𝗞. 𝗛𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘇 – 2.83 (2⚽️) #NED 𝗠. 𝗗𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 – 2.71 (2⚽️) pic.twitter.com/9dSSEEwT7V
– The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) June 24, 2021
Spain, at the moment, is one of the only six teams that has always deserved to score more than its rival, along with Italy, Denmark, the Netherlands, England or Germany. Greats like Belgium or France have not achieved it. Regardless of the difficulty of the group, the perseverance and work of Luis Enrique’s men to dominate the game with an iron fist is to be praised. It’s more, in the defeat to Slovakia they only conceded 0.11 Expected Goals and generated 3.56 in attack. The data is on the table, but the games are defined by the goals. It is a matter of time before Spain marks them. It is unknown if that time that is so invoked will arrive before the crosses. If it does, attention, the championship is not that far away.