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Mutuactivos increases the weight in the Japanese stock portfolio and sees an opportunity in the Chinese public debt

Mutual assets considers that, following recent corrections, the bag trades at attractive multiples in relative terms, which makes it one of the most interesting risk assets to invest. In its portfolio review for the third quarter of the year, the manager opts to maintain its polarized strategy in equities, which combines its commitment to European cyclical stocks and growth in the United States.

“Sectorally, we believe that debt movements will continue to generate turnover and we want to take advantage of it,” he says. Ignacio Dolz de Espejo, director of investment and product solutions at Mutuactivos. Specifically, the manager of Mutua Madrileña go potential in national titles, such as IAG, Merlin, Enagas or Amadeus, and in other international titles, such as Alphabet or Facebook. At the sectoral level, they reaffirm their commitment to semiconductor companies and linked to the energy transition.

The scenario of strong growth, rising inflation, but moderating in the medium term, and low interest rates is positive for risk assets. “Although it must be taken into account that the valuation of these assets remains very high, as is the positioning of investors,” says Dolz de Espejo.

Among the new investment decisions adopted by Mutuactivos stands out the tactical increase in the weight of the japanese equities in portfolio. “It is a market that has lagged behind, it is trading at attractive multiples in relative terms and it is quite little present in the portfolios of institutional investors. In addition, investing in local currency increases the defensive bias of the bet, since the yen is a safe-haven asset that usually performs well when there are significant falls in the stock market, ”says Dolz de Espejo.

Chinese government debt

In fixed income, Mutuactivos expect higher rates for the end of the year, so they have increased their commitment to the upward trend in the profitability of the long-term debt of the United States. They believe that corporate fixed income will continue to be heavily supported by central bank purchases. However, they maintain high levels of liquidity to be able to buy if new opportunities arise in the market.

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As a novelty, in the long term they see an opportunity in the chinese government debt for its attractive remuneration combined with a low correlation with the debt of developed countries. “We want to increase the weight of this asset in the portfolio little by little,” says Dolz de Espejo.

Economic growth

Regarding macro analysis, Mutuactivos estimates that the reopening of the economy, the progressive immunization of society and very beneficial fiscal and monetary conditions are generating strong growth in the economy. “We believe that this pace will continue this year and that Europe will take center stage as restrictions are lifted. The delta variant of COVID could slow the recovery if it became very virulent. But, for now, and despite being even more contagious, the high immunization of the population is making the number of hospitalizations and deaths proportionally reduced. Still, some leading indicators are already beginning to relax pointing to a slowdown next year. It will be key that the economy, after the boost received, maintains healthy growth and not as anemic as in previous years ”, adds Dolz de Espejo.

Regarding inflation, from Mutuactivos they consider that, although it will remain high, the logical thing is that it will decrease little by little as the current situation is no longer compared with that of the worst moment of the pandemic. “There are important factors, such as the tightness of the labor market, the price of used cars and the rental of housing that could alter expectations and generate surprises in the coming months, so we prefer not to put all our eggs in the same basket and preserve the agility ”, he clarifies.

In the manager they believe that inflation expectations have less upward path than rates. “Although we maintain our investment in inflation (much lower than a few months ago), we are going to increase our commitment to higher rates (short of US debt)”, he points out.

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