Mexico lost 12 million informal jobs due to the pandemic: HR Ratings. (Photo: . / José Méndez)
The coronavirus pandemic in Mexico has left the loss of 12 million informal jobs, warned the rating agency HR Ratings.
In an interview with the newspaper Milenio, the general director of HR Ratings in Mexico, Félix Boni, detailed that economic activity in the country fell around 20%, and although the forecasts indicate a job recovery, « we do not know what the damage that the pandemic left to companies, » he said.
Before the appearance of the SARS CoV-2 virus, HR Ratings estimated a growth in consumption of between 2 or 3%, but with the health emergency a drop of between 12 and 13% is expected in some sectors.
Félix Boni explained that the effect of confinement should also be considered, since many people stayed at home and did not spend; later there was a recovery in spending, but it was less.
PHOTO: GRACIELA LÓPEZ / CUARTOSCURO
He considered that a recovery is expected in 2021, but we must wait to see if the effects persist, « what we do see is that wages rose for different reasons, in part due to increases in the minimum wage in January for three years consecutive, « said Felix Boni.
When asked about what percentage of employment was lost during confinement in Mexico, the director general of HR Ratings noted that « according to the IGAE (Global Indicator of Economic Activity) of the Inegi it fell approximately 20% in April and that was very similar to the fall of busy people, according to the Inegi. We are talking about a job loss of approximately 20% And if we could add to that percentage people who have jobs but are absent due to the pandemic, we are talking about a loss of 30% from March to April, then if it has been very strong, « he stressed.
He noted that one of the sectors most affected by the loss of jobs is construction, where wages are lower than in others. « We have also seen a significant drop in informal jobs, affecting people with fewer resources », said.
Unlike the federal government that ensures that the economic crisis caused by the pandemic bottomed out last April, Boni pointed out that this could have been in June.
“We hope that the Mexican economy has bottomed out in June, with the outbreaks of contagion perhaps taking a little longer. We are talking about very important falls in those months, of almost 12 million people without jobs, only in the informal sector ”, said.
Every morning in your email: subscribe to the Infobae Mexico newsletter
PHOTO: DAVID POLO / CUARTOSCURO
The CEO of HR Ratings considered that it is very difficult to know how quickly the lost job will recover and that although a recovery is expected at the end of the year, returning to 2019 levels would take two years or more.
« It is very difficult to know. We believe that at the end of the year there could be a recovery, the problem is that we do not know what the damage that the pandemic left to companies and some are already bankrupt. It is very difficult to know how quickly we are going to recover the lost job, it may take two or more years to return to the 2019 levels ″, he pointed.
Finally, the CEO of HR Ratings predicted that Mexico will have an economic recovery in the form of a tennis brand popcorn, although that depends on the reconstruction of the production chains in the United States and possible outbreaks of COVID-19.
« We are forecasting a recovery in the form of the NIKE popcorn, where at the beginning we will go fast, although nothing comparable to the fall, and then we will gradually lose strength to go slower, so it will take longer to reach the levels that we were before. Furthermore, we do not know what will happen in the United States in terms of rebuilding production chains. Although what the US government is doing to counteract the situation will help us maintain the demand of the neighbor to the north, « he stressed.
“Another aspect to consider is the outbreaks of coronaviruses that can be very problematic. We were originally forecasting a recovery this month, but the COVID-19 outbreaks in the US and Mexico further complicate the nature of the economic recovery in both countries, « he concluded.
Every day more Mexicans enter the COVID-19 “business”: they sell everything from face masks to body bags
Coronavirus in Mexico: almost 12 million lost their jobs; women and youth the most affected
Pension reform: who will not be able to receive benefits