If the trend continues, in March 2021 there would be 143,740 deaths from COVID-19 in Mexico: IHME

The University of Washington predicts that, in the worst case scenario, in March, Mexico could reach 147,740 deaths from COVID-19

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) of the University of Washington predicts that by March 2021, in Mexico, there could be up to 147 thousand 740 deaths from COVID-19.

The IHME foresaw three possible scenarios for Mexico in which variations are observed depending on if sanitary measures are maintained like using mask and the social distancing.

Possible scenarios of deaths from COVID-19 in Mexico for March 2021. Graphic from University of Washington

In the most optimistic scenario, the IHME calculates that 135 thousand 203 people would die from the virus in the country.

This would be achieved in case the whole population use the mask correctly and maintain all social distancing measures.

A second screening, which is based on the current trend in the rate of infections and deaths, indicates that for the same date, there could be 143,740 deaths by COVID-19 in Mexico.

This scenario would occur in the event that sanitary measures were applied strictly by six consecutive weeks in the country.

The worst case scenario would leave at least 147,850 people in the country.

Mexico would reach this situation if sanitary measures were suspended in the country and no mask will be used constantly.

Second outbreak, less intense than the first

According to these estimates, the second outbreak of COVID-19 in the country it could be less intense than the first.

It is expected that there are fewer infections and an average of 300 to 400 daily deaths by the virus.

If the current rate of evolution of the disease in the country continues, late december the maximum point of the pandemic would be reached and it would begin to decrease in January.

However, the winter season will be decisive for the country’s health system because it will have a higher level of bed occupancy hospital as well as units of intensive therapy.

Previously, the Undersecretary of Prevention and Health Promotion, Hugo Lopez-Gatell, warned that the rebound in COVID-19 infections through which Mexico passes will last until March 2021.

Recently, Mexico exceeded the barrier of 100,000 deaths from COVID-19 in addition, the barrier of one million infections of COVID-19 was surpassed.

These figures place Mexico as the fourth country in the world with the highest number of deaths from this disease.

With information from López-Dóriga Digital