Iberdrola with 34% potential
Iberdrola has presented results this week that have moved in line with expectations. Let us recall that downward net profit of 1,025 million euros with a fall of 19.4% compared to last year, improving ebitda and raising net debt by 3.3% to exceed 36,300 million euros.
For Renta 4, these accounts slightly improve their expectations and highlights the rise in ebitda, its gross operating result, of 1.5% which, without the effects of Covid-19 and currency depreciation against the euro, would have improved by 12, two%. It also highlights the greater contribution of Networks in the US and Brazil, greater renewable capacity, increased renewable production in Spain at higher prices and another factor, the growing contribution, says the firm, of wind power in its accounts.
Among the negatives it highlights, yes, the lower nuclear and thermal production and lower margins in Spain, as well as the rebound in gas costs in Mexico, which can be recovered in the coming months through tariffs. From Renta 4 they value that it maintains its guidance for all of 2021, those benefits of between 3,700 and 3,800 million euros and the dividend of 0.44 euros per share, as well as the progress, better than expected, of its Strategic plan. They once again overweight the security with a target price of 12.5 euros per share.
Meanwhile, from Bankinter, they consider that it is a good start to the year for the company, also because the forecasts established for the whole of 2021 are confirmed. Among the positives are its new capacity in renewable generation, which increases 8.5%, the improvements in efficiency and the lower cost of debt, 3.33 compared to 3.455 in the first quarter of 2020.
Factors, they say from the bank, that outweigh the negative impact of the lower regulated income in distribution in Spain and the lower electricity demand due to Covid, as well as the currency effect in both Mexico and Brazil. They bet to buy the stock with a PO of 13 euros per share.
In the price of the stock, as we say, there have been no major developments after the results, which the market only read very slightly negative. But the most significant thing is the update of the Barclays target price that raises it to 15 euros from the previous 14, giving it a potential of 34%.
In its quotation graph we see how the value continues to show negative, with losses of 3.5% in the last 20 sessions, although in the last 10 days the laterality focuses on its stock market flow. A fall very similar to the one accumulated so far this year with cuts of 3.16%.
In addition, it has just increased capital in the US subsidiary Avangrid for 3,287 million euros, slightly more than 25% of the current capital of which Iberdrola will subscribe 81.5% of the capital. The objective is to finance the purchase and the investment plan of the also American PNM Resources, thus repaying the 3,000 million euro loan with Iberdrola itself. The rest of the stake will be subscribed by the Qatar Investment Authority, which will control 4% of Avangrid. It should be remembered that this is the largest shareholder of the Spanish energy company with just over 8.7% of its capital.
For José Antonio González, technical analyst of Investment Strategies, “registers a bearish turn again in the strictest short term, starting at 11,565 euros, which forces it to directly attack the projected support zone of around 11,165 / 11,035 euros per share “.
And he adds that “the violation of said support area, would enable sales to update targets downward towards the area comprised around 10.575 / 10.52 euros per share. On the other hand, purchases must be able to resolve upwards the previous maximum of 11,565 euros to cancel the downward movement that the Iberdrola price has been describing in the last trading sessions ”.
Iberdrola on a daily chart with Trading Activity (window with a blue background), Stochastic oscillator (window with a green background) and Average amplitude range (window with a yellow background)
As shown by the technical indicators of Investment Strategies, Iberdrola marks a score of 7.5 out of the 10 possible points, with an improvement of one point and in a bullish mode. On the negative side, there is a declining medium and long-term business volume and the wide range, the volatility of the value that is increasing in the long term. In the most favorable area, the indicators show us an upward trend in the medium and long term, a total, slow and fast moment that is positive for the value and the volatility of the decreasing value in the medium term.
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