How many votes does Ayuso need to achieve an absolute majority in the Madrid Assembly?

About five million people were called to the polls in the elections of this May 4, 2021 in the Community of Madrid, a day characterized by long queues in front of polling stations from early in the morning and high turnout. In fact, the second advance at 7:00 p.m. was 69.27%, which represents 11 points more than in 2019.

According to a latest survey by Telemadrid, the PP candidate for re-election, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, would obtain victory with 62 to 65 deputies, while the PSOE would fall slightly (25 -28 deputies) and Más Madrid would obtain an increase with up to 24 seats. Unidos Podemos would reach between 10 and 11 parliamentarians, Vox would achieve between 12 and 14, and Ciudadanos would stay out of the Assembly as it did not reach 5% of the vote.

How many seats are needed for the majority?

Due to the increase in population in the region, the Madrid Assembly will have a total of 136 deputies after the early regional elections on May 4, four more than in the current legislature, as stipulated by the Statute of Autonomy of the Community of Madrid.

In this way, an absolute majority would be achieved by reaching 69 seats. In this sense, there could be a situation of a tie between the left and right blocs with 68 deputies, so a repeat of the elections would be likely.

Thus, the latest polls give Díaz Ayuso victory with a large percentage of votes, although they do not guarantee governability because would need the support of Vox to add an absolute majority.