Gabilondo (Photo: EFE)
There is no barometer without controversy from the Sociological Research Center (CIS). And this time he plays with the 4-M pre-election. The body led by José Félix Tezanos makes the following radiography: the PP would win comfortably (with 59 seats) but the right wing would stay at 68 (adding the 9 of Vox, Cs would not be able to enter), which would lead to a tie with the left (68 seats adding PSOE, UP and More Country).
These data do not add up to experts in electoral projections. Paco Camas, a Metroscopia researcher, first noticed it on his Twitter account. According to their calculations, based on CIS data, the projection should give an absolute majority to the left (70) versus the right (66). Specifically, this is the result in the number of parliamentarians that there should be: PP (58), PSOE (37), Más Madrid (21), UP (12) and Vox (8).
Instead, the CIS makes this projection by parties: PP (59), PSOE (38), Más Madrid (20), UP (10) and Vox (9).
The Sociological Research Center, according to sources from the organization consulted by HuffPost, is ratified in its numbers despite the controversy. From the CIS they point out: “It is not that we have been wrong, it is that we have taken into account more variables and hypotheses, in addition to the memory of the vote.”
From Metroscopia, its main researcher, José Pablo Ferrándiz, explains that they are not questioning the CIS vote estimate and recalls that they have always defended the “electoral kitchen.” He insists that each one makes the estimate based on what they consider, but the problem, he says, is that the percentages stipulated by the CIS then do not correspond, when using the D’Hont formula, with the number of es. ..
This article originally appeared on The HuffPost and has been updated.