Grifols with 56% potential, but currently bearish
Grifols has just confessed to the market in the second possible way. Not through its results, but through its Investor Day, which has left interesting answers on the table about the company’s progress. Banco Sabadell says that it is occurring, as the company has recognized, that there is a delay in the recovery of plasma supply.
Despite the fact that its expected purchase level is above the expected level, with its multiple acquisitions in the United States, a recovery of this compound is expected during the present. exercise of between 10 and 20% compared to 2020. But the initial expected increase was 30%. The reasons he argues, the weaker evolution in the US due to the American stimuli and aid. Of course, the company expects an increase at the end of the year and full recovery in 2022.
Sabadell points out that, on the rest, their estimates do not change, placing the emphasis on their greater investment in external R&D, with the purchase of biotechnology or research companies and projects not related to plasma. It also highlights the divestment plan of non-strategic assets in the short term to accelerate the process, although it considers that it will be limited.
His decision to publish his results semi-annually stands out, which he considers reduces his visibility, although it is common, he says, in his sector. And they maintain the purchase advice on the value, given the solid demand in Biosciences, which accumulates 80% of their sales. Its target price, 34 euros per share, which gives it a potential of 56%.
In its quotation graph we see how the value moves with cuts of 6% in the last full month, while it is placed as the fourth by the tail of the Ibex, after Solaria, Siemens Gamesa and Iberdrola. So far this year it has already lost 7.25% in the market.
Grifols YTD quote
Grifols “consolidates below its medium and long-term moving averages, while at the same time drilling the latest projected rising low of 21.87 euros per share. In this way, the price opens a scenario of downward continuity towards 21.15 euros, intermediate support to attack the annual lows in a deep downward context ”, highlights the technical analyst of Investment Strategies, José Antonio González.
Grifols on daily chart with average amplitude range in percentage, MACD oscillator and trading volume
Grifols marks, following the technical indicators, the worst score of the Ibex in the Premiums of Investment Strategies, with just half a percentage point, from the previous 3.5 points, of the 10 possible for the value. Only with the volatility in the medium term decreasing, the rest of the indicators move clearly in the negative.
The trend is downward, in the medium and long term, the total moment, negative, both slow and fast, the volume of business in the medium and long is decreasing and the long-term volatility is increasing for Grifols.
For María Mira, from the fundamental point of view “in an analysis of ratios on estimated results and with an EPS estimated for the end of 2021 of € 1.65 / share (revised after the publication of figures corresponding to 1Q21), the PER It stands at 14.12v, lower than the ratio of Grifols’ average results in the last three years (17.5v) and with margin compared to the average for the selective Ibex 35> 25v. It will be necessary to monitor the fulfillment of forecasts ”.
The EI expert points out that “by book value the share is trading at 1.7v, in line with the average ratio for the value in recent years and an average for selective companies around 2v. It is not very generous via dividends (Yield is around 1.55%). The ratios moderate under the forecast for 2022 and reflect greater long-term potential of the value ”.
And the fundamental analyst of Investment Strategies ends by indicating that “based on our fundamental valuation we are positive with the long-term value, always bearing in mind that the timing does not seem positive and therefore the recommendation is to keep the value monitored until we see a turn to positive in the strength of the market for a better moment of entry ”.
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