– While waiting for the latest US inflation report to be published this Thursday, how are the Wall Street indices?
In principle, if inflation exceeds the analysts’ estimate, what can be expected is an increase in volatility and falls as a reaction to the data, although of course all this depends on how much the deviation is and the interpretation that may be given to distorting factors such as the price of the sale of second-hand cars as it happened last month due to the supply problems of microchips in the manufacture of new cars. The expectation is that it is a bad data, there may be a scare on the same day of publication. A year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI is expected in May of 3.4% and the monthly core CPI is expected to grow by 0.4%.
Wall Street stock indices continue to rise, advancing week after week. In the short term, we see that there is a series of divergences, that it costs them more to advance and the Nasdaq trying to overcome the resistance of 13,815 points. In principle, the long-term trend is upward and in the short-term it has been lateral upward since May. The ‘sell in May’ thing is not exactly like that, that is that the month of May actually behaves normally worse than Wall Street usually behaves in other months.
– On Thursday there will also be a meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank and, on the other hand, the G7 has agreed on a global corporate tax of 15%. How do you see the European indices?
We do not see an impact on the markets after the G7 decision. The decision has the endorsement of the European Union, perhaps there is a country like Luxembourg or Ireland that opposes it, but in principle we do not see that the indices have discounted the decision. The Euro Stoxx reaches highs this Tuesday and the situation of the indices is positive, not so much in the Ibex 35 which is in a resistance zone. We do not see big problems on the European stock markets.
– This Friday Iran and the world powers will enter a new round of talks. What would happen to the price of oil if Washington lifted economic sanctions on Iranian oil exports?
If they lift the sanctions on Iran, what is expected is that much more oil will actually enter the markets. What could happen is that, for the moment, oil prices slow down or could even fall, it depends on how the economy evolves and based on this we can also see how the oil market evolves.
On a technical level, West Texas oil has overcome the resistance of $ 66.60, has also exceeded $ 67.98 and is targeting $ 76.9. The support to watch is $ 57.25 and more long-term $ 50. Oil in the short term is clearly bullish and is on its way to $ 75-80.
– Where do you see gold in the short term? And long?
We have expectations of an increase in inflation, although the US Federal Reserve maintains that this will be temporary, so it is not clear to investors either. What we can see on the daily chart is that gold, after having made a double bottom at 1,676 dollars, has resumed the upward path and as inflation expectations rise, gold, which is considered a safe haven asset, will continue to rise. It is aiming at $ 1,965, an area that is quite feasible to reach.
– Bitcoin moves very aggressively, it has a lot of volatility. For us this is clearly bearish
– The trend of bitcoin right now is bearish with small occasional rallies. Is an upward turn possible in the short term? The trend of bitcoin right now is bearish with small punctual rallies according to a statement by Elon Musk, the president of Tesla. After losing highs, it has been falling to a minimum of $ 30,006 and if it loses the area between $ 30,006 and $ 28,746 it could fall to hell because we know that there are a number of countries that do not even want cryptocurrencies in paint.