A moderately bullish open is expected in Europe. These are the factors to consider.
1- The rise comes because Wall Street closed at the end well above where it was at the time of the European close.
2- In any case, welcome to Groundhog Day. Ninth consecutive session where the SP 500 and the Nasdaq marinate at the height of the resistances of 4400 and 15000 without passing or ending up moving away.
The key day of the week will be Friday with the employment data, they may be waiting for that.
3- At the moment today we have a favorable factor in the publication in China of the PMI data for services, which has been much better than expected, but much better. Specifically, it has risen from 506.6 to 54.9 and when expected 50.3.
Of course, they have commented that there are increases in the costs of personnel, fuel, supplies, inflationary tensions everywhere.
4- The Chinese stock market has taken the data well and more because there has been a rebound in the technology sector after yesterday’s scare, especially in the video game sector, when the Chinese communist government said that video games are the spiritual opium of children Chinese.
5- Today there will also be service PMIs in Europe and the US.
6- Goldman jumped on Hartnett’s bandwagon last night, which at the moment was just announcing stagflation. Goldman says the risk of this happening is very high and is forecasting a 10% drop in stocks.
7- Deutsche Bank, for its part, has said that bonds will not fall during the summer due to the bad seasonality of the stock markets and the intense rotations of pension funds from the stock market to bonds, an issue we have talked about a lot.
8- Today, what Clarida says of the FED is expected with great interest at around 4:00 p.m., Spanish time. You already know that there is fear that he will join Waller and Bullard who are announcing an immediate tapering if the employment data for this month and next comes out above 800,000. What happens is that Bowman, governor of the FED, has lowered pressure, who does not think the same as the previous ones and has said that the labor market is very far from what the FED wants.
9- China says that according to the Chinese Communist Party politburo they will continue to sell US bonds because they see the risk of recession in the US ¿? it is clear that they say it in a political key to pummel the US. But be afraid to watch.
10- At 2:15 p.m. attention to the ADP private job creation data
Jose Luis Carpathians