Bloomberg study points out that traditional combustion has two more decades of leadership
The heat engine still has many years of life left. Or at least that’s what Bloomberg thinks, stating that it won’t be until 2038 – hence 18 years – when the sale of electric cars will surpass that of traditional combustion cars.
Bloomberg, through a study of its subsidiary BloombergNef -New Energy Finance-, believes that 42.4 million of the 92 million vehicles to be sold in 2038 will be fully electric, while 41.8 million will be thermal. Plug-in hybrids will account for 7.5 million.
And by 2040, there are projected to be around 500 million electric cars in circulation worldwide, almost a third of the global number. It seems a very high number, if one takes into account that only two years earlier, 50 million units per year will not have been reached.
These figures are global. It is clear that in the European market the ‘sorpasso’ will come earlier. Europe and China will represent 70% of the electricity market.
For BloombergNef, this year 2020 only 1.3 million electric vehicles and 428,000 plug-in hybrids will be sold worldwide, figures ‘almost ridiculous’ compared to the 64.5 million that will be sold this year.
The growth of electrical sales, despite the multiple projects and efforts of the brands and also the investments that are being made, will be slow. By 2021, sales will still be below 2 million, while PHEVs will touch 700,000.
The reasons for this slow growth are several. Battery factories, adapted car factories, the public recharging network are needed and there is the price factor. Only towards 2022 will electric and thermal prices begin to equalize in the highest segments; we will still have to wait for this to happen in lower segments.
And of course, sales will be very uneven. Europe and China will account for 70% of electricity sales in the market, as we have said. It is logical because governments are more committed to environmental problems. Furthermore, in Europe CO2 emission standards will be tightened in the coming years and so will those of other gases. Aid or subsidies for the purchase of electric vehicles, the tax advantages that these can offer compared to thermal vehicles will also be decisive.
If you want to read more news like this visit our Flipboard