Ildefonso Guajardo contradicted the forecasts for economic recovery of the Lopezobrador administration (Photo: .)
Mexico’s economic recovery from the current coronavirus pandemic will not be V-shaped, as the government of Andrés Manul López Obrador has foreseen, said Ildefonso Guajardo Villareal, who was Secretary of the Economy in the six-year term of Enrique Peña Nieto.
The former official said that few nations will have an immediate restoration and Mexico will not be the exception, since the country it will take a couple of years to return to productive and commercial status where it was before the health crisis.
Before outbreaks of contagion observed in countries that started the economic reopening permeates an environment of uncertainty, in addition, export markets, which allowed the crisis to be fought in 1994 and 2008, are going through ups and downs, as explained the economist in a virtual forum called by Vertebra Nuevo León, a civil organization headed by Gilberto Marcos Handal.
The former official of the Peñietista administration reported that the outbreaks of coronavirus would impact the recovery (Photo: Screenshot)
« In the crisis of 94, 2008, it is the exporting sector that has brought us forward, this time, unfortunately, unlike the crisis of 2008, this will not be a recovery in V, accelerated and fast, because the Mexican export markets themselves are suffering ups and downs with the acceleration of infections and with the setback in the reopening of their industries and markets« Guajardo Villareal assured, and given the entry into force of the Trade Agreement between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC).
The above contradicts the forecast of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who, prior to his report to commemorate his electoral victory on July 2, commented that although the COVID-19 emergency impacted the loss of almost a million formal jobs, there had been indicators projecting a V-shaped recovery and the fall in job positions would stop in July, coupled with the benefits of the renewed T-MEC.
At the beginning of last month, Arturo Herrera, head of the Treasury and Public Credit (SHCP), assured that the recovery of the economy will be in the form of a « dove », that is, a longer V. On June 28, the date on which López Obrador communicated his projection, Gabriel Yorio, SHCP undersecretary, assured the same.
The president predicted that the recovery would be rapid and the loss of jobs would stop in July.
« Our forecast that we were going to fall into the economic, naturally, due to the pandemic the economy fell, but that we were going to make a quick recovery, forever I spoke of a V, the fall, bottoming out and moving forward soon, ”said AMLO in a video broadcast on his social networks.
The President added that other economists predicted L-shaped behaviorthat is, with economic downturn and stagnation. But the president remained optimistic, because the support to overcome the crisis was given to the least favored sectors, and this would reactivate consumption from below.
« We continue to see a recovery in the form of a popcorn, however, if there are outbreaks, this will lead us to have to manage economic activities that will probably slow down the opening of din some sectors and that is going to take us a little more time, so maybe what we are going to see is a little bit more elongated, « Gabriel Yorio said at the time.
At the beginning of last month, Arturo Herrera, head of the Treasury and Public Credit (SHCP), assured that the recovery of the economy will be in the form of a “popcorn” (Photo: . / Luisa González)
Arturo Herrera, for his part, He said that of the V, W and U scenarios, the one with the first letter was the most rational for Mexico. This was an abrupt decline followed by a similar recovery. While the W was a forecast with reopening, followed by a regrowth and subsequent closure. And the letter U, implied a fall, followed by a stagnation preceding the recovery.
“This crisis has lasted globally and there have been recurrences. The Spanish returned to isolation in some sectors, the North Americans in states like Florida and Texas have had accelerations in the levels of contagion and this generates uncertainty in the consumer markets and distorts the mechanisms of the production line. That is the basis of our recoveries in the past and that is going to be slower than expected, ”argued the former Peñonista official.
In addition, he said that the disruption caused in SMEs in services and informal areas would be more difficult to recover. He also commented that the entry into force of the T-MEC would not be a magic wand to get out of the emergency.
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