The dollar opened upward trading in the Brazilian market this Monday, 1st. Despite being weakened in the foreign market, the foreign currency is influenced by political tension in the country, after statements by the Minister of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) Celso de Mello, who compared Brazil to Hitler’s Germany, in addition to the acts for and against the Bolsonaro government this Sunday, 31, occurred in São Paulo. A few minutes after the opening, the dollar was traded at the maximum value of the day, R $ 5.3518.

Last Friday, 29, the currency closed with a drop of 0.82%, quoted at R $ 5.3389.

External scenario

The dollar is weak abroad against major currencies and most emerging currencies linked to commodities, but it is rising against the real amid the rising tone of the Brazilian political crisis. However, the news that China has ordered the suspension of agricultural imports from the United States, including soybeans, which poses a threat to the Chinese-American trade agreement signed in January, may benefit Brazilian exports of the commodity and encourage local investors, amid prospects for a possible increase in trade flow to Brazil.

Economist Sidnei Nehme, from the NGO brokerage, assesses that the Chinese decision benefits Brazil and strengthens the soy sector, which already has strong performance and will certainly help agribusiness to anchor part of the significant drop expected in the second quarter. “What can hinder are the existing bottlenecks for the export flow, which is normally bad and is now aggravated by the coronavirus crisis”, he comments. But the news, he says, is positive for Brazil and creates better prospects for the trade balance.

Even so, an eventual fall against the real may be limited by the worsening of the internal institutional political scenario and after the dollar accumulated a 1.83% decline in May. Even so, the American currency still rises 33.08% in the year, which keeps the real among the currencies with the worst return.

Local scenario

The dean of the Supreme Court, Minister Celso de Mello, compared Brazil to Hitler’s Germany and, in a private message sent to interlocutors on WhatsApp, said that Bolsonarists “hate democracy” and intend to establish a “despicable and abject dictatorship”. Wanted, the minister alleged to the Estadão / Broadcast that the demonstration was “exclusively personal”, “without any formal connection to the STF”.

President Jair Bolsonaro wrote on Facebook on Saturday that ‘everything points to a crisis’, commenting on recent decisions by the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the Federal Audit Court (TCU) and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) , which target the family, allies and his presidential campaign in 2018. Bolsonaro highlighted the news that Minister Celso de Mello forwarded to the Attorney General’s Office (PGR) a request for an investigation against Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PSL- SP) for the crime of inciting the subversion of the political or social order. The “hate office”, the structure of the Planalto Palace responsible for making attacks on social networks and WhatsApp groups on critics of President Jair Bolsonaro, came into the sights of TCU.

Regarding the actions for and against the Bolsonaro government this Sunday, 31, in São Paulo, opposition leaders and leaders saw it with concern. For them, the police acted “unevenly” with protesters for and against the president. Another fear is that the confrontation is just what the president would like to see to radicalize. And the fact that the acts were organized by football fans, including rivals (Corinthians and Palmeiras), was positive because it shows that Bolsonaro’s wear and tear transcends parties and politicians.

In the view of market analysts, however, there is still no risk of opening the impeachment process for Bolsonaro because of the approach of the president of Centrão in Congress, but the worsening of the crisis day by day will remain on the radar, limiting downward adjustments before the real.

The government appointed the chief of staff of Senator Ciro Nogueira (Progressistas-PI), Marcelo Lopes da Ponte, to chair the National Education Development Fund (FNDE), which has a budget of R $ 29.4 billion this year. The appointment was published in this Monday’s edition of the Federal Official Gazette (DOU). In the past few weeks, the government had already appointed a PL nominee from the fund’s Educational Actions Board, the acronym of former deputy Valdemar da Costa Neto, convicted in the monthly allowance. Garigham Amarante Pinto, a party aide in the Chamber, took office on April 18. In addition, Bolsonaro will hand over the command of Banco do Nordeste (BNB) to another name indicated by the PL. / SILVANA ROCHA AND LUÍSA LAVAL

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