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COVID-19 : Johns Hopkins scientist predicts optimistic date for herd immunity

One of the great theories developed in these months of pandemic to determine the end of COVID-19 is to achieve herd immunity. This supposes that a significant number of people develop antibodies, in any way, in such a way that the possibility of contagion is very small because a fairly massive immunity is achieved.

Experiments have been carried out to demonstrate its effectiveness and experts have given their opinion, such as Rafael VilaSanjuan, in Spain, who said it could be achieved by the end of the year. Nevertheless, according An expert from the American University Johns Hopkins, who has acquired a relevant role during the pandemic, that immunity will arrive much sooner than we imagine.

Professor and Surgeon Marty Makary, who teaches at the Faculty of Medicine, wrote this past Friday an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal in which it said practically everything with its headline: “We will have herd immunity in April.”

What are you based on for this prediction?

“My prediction that COVID-19 will mostly disappear in April it is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature, and conversations with experts. But it is also based on direct observation of how difficult the tests have been, especially for the poor ”, he assures.

In fact, he feels that his prediction is not shared by other scientists. Talk about fear: “Many experts, along with politicians and journalists, are afraid to talk about herd immunity. The term has political connotations because some suggested the United States simply let COVID-19 tear itself apart to achieve herd immunity ”.

Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there could be very little COVID-19 in April, but suggested that I not speak publicly about herd immunity. because people could become complacent and not take precautions or refuse the vaccine. But scientists should not try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth, “he concludes.

Its main reason is the decrease in infections in a short time

“Amid dire COVID warnings, a crucial fact has been largely ignored: cases have decreased by 77% in the last six weeks”, Begins in its first lines. And he reasons: “In large part because natural immunity to a previous infection is much more common than can be measured by tests. The tests have captured only 10% to 25% of the infections ”.

During his article, he takes the case of the United States as an example, on the other hand at the top of the list of countries most affected. “There is reason to think that the country is moving towards an extremely low level of infection. As more people have become infected, most of whom have little or no symptoms, fewer Americans remain to be infected, ”continues Makary.

“In the current trajectory, I hope COVID-19 will mostly disappear in April, allowing Americans to resume normal life”, He reiterates. For him, the key is that “antibody studies underestimate natural immunity,” and he regrets being alone in the fight: “In my own conversations with medical experts, I have noticed that they too often discount natural immunity, arguing that we have no data.”

There are a paragraph summarizing your main idea to achieve that immunity in April, which he considers the only explanation for “the constant and rapid decrease in daily cases since January 8”. It is as follows: “For months I have argued that we could save more American lives if people with a previous COVID-19 infection forgo vaccines until all vulnerable older people receive their first dose.. Several studies show that natural immunity should protect those with COVID-19 until more vaccines are available. “