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COVID-19 : Coronavirus: The possible scenarios to know if there will be a fourth wave of Covid-19

The incidence of the coronavirus in Spain maintains a downward trend in recent weeks and the worst of the third wave seems to be being left behind. However, and despite the fact that the vaccination process continues to advance, the health authorities warn that there is still Difficult months remain and for this reason they insist on not letting down their guard against the disease.

Experts point out that The risk of a new wave is a very real possibility, especially with the appearance of the new variants of the coronavirus, endowed with a greater transmission capacity. This is reflected in a report from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).

The risk will remain high

This document highlights that in the near future the The risk will continue to be “very high”, especially in the event that prevention measures are relaxed. In addition, it points to the arrival of good weather as a decisive factor for its influence on social activity. In this scenario, it underlines the danger to vulnerable people.

The ECDC report also points out as key elements for a fourth wave to occur or not the expansion that occurs of new strains, the rate of vaccination and the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19. It also highlights the importance of continuing to carry out large-scale diagnostic tests and keep track of positives to keep the pandemic under control.

Possible situations

The document of this organization also highlights the importance of carry out close monitoring of the evolution of new strains through virus sequencing in order to avoid a further notable increase in risk for citizens, as well as the need to maintain and even enforce restrictions. In addition, it points out two possible scenarios.

Thus, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control predicts that in the best of situations, the continent would once again register a very slight curve between the months of April and May. However, in the event that produce circumstances that facilitate the transmission of the virus, the impact would be greater and would last until the summer.