It is not an isolated fact, it is not a theory, it is not a prediction. Definitely it can be confirmed that the trend is clearly downward. A few weeks ago, the global coronavirus curve was completely upward. Although from March 2020 to November the statistics showed more or less an irregular trend, With the arrival of winter and Christmas the curve began to grow considerably, reaching its highest peak at the end of January.
Nevertheless, now diagnoses are going to face their sixth week of decline, and deaths the third, so the trend is clear. However, it is not definitive. Now it is going down, after a long time going up, but this does not indicate that it will not go higher. The experience of the last year shows that this goes by waves, and that when one rises, then it falls.
The difference is that all over the world countries are progressing unevenly, and Normally the waves of each other make the global numbers remain stable because they offset each other. But in this case the total sum is less and less. In the week of January 4, 2020, according to figures from the World Health Organization, the peak was reached with more than five million new positives.
The reasons for the decline
Last week, compared to those five million new infections, 2.7 million were recorded, practically half. And this downward trend also manifests itself in deaths. It reached 98,000 new deaths in the last week of January and last week they were 82,538. It is late.
According to experts, measurements and seasonality are the two factors that are greatly influencing, within a list of reasons. However, lhe statistics is also conditioned by the weight of the countries where more diagnostic tests are performed. In other words, the WHO does not deal with the real infections in Africa with certainty, and where more tests are carried out is in developed countries for which there is more data. And precisely these are the ones that are in the decline phase.
In Africa, Asia and Latin America the fall is much smoother, while the United States or Europe have a great impact on the global curve. The two countries with the lowest decline are the United States and the United Kingdom, which are also the most advanced in the vaccination process. However, experts believe that this still has a marginal effect on the decline of the pandemic.
Finally, other points to keep in mind are the greater awareness of the people with the arrival of the new variants of the coronavirus, especially after Christmas, and the immunity that the population is gradually acquiring as infections have risen and people have overcome the disease.
WHO calls for calm and prudence
“The fire is not out, but we have reduced its size. If we abandon it on some front, it will reignite with fury. Every day that passes with fewer infections means lives saved, suffering avoided and the burden on health systems lightening, just a little, ”said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General, on February 15.
“Today we have even more reasons to hope that we can control the pandemic”he added, claiming that “simple public health measures work, even in the presence of variants.”
The variants do not leave room for rest or to relax the restrictions. The British, the South African and the Brazilian are the big three recognized and the most important, but they may not be the only ones to consolidate. It is not even known if vaccines will be able to with them. Therefore, Nothing has been gained yet, but much progress has been made and there is some light at the end of the tunnel.