Coronavirus | A Harvard professor warns of the arrival of the third wave

We have not yet overcome the second wave of coronavirus and experts already predict the third for after Christmas. Andrea Crisanti, Italy’s most respected epidemiologist, warned of a third wave “in January and February” in your country, if it is a government, it does not draw up a plan “to keep the pandemic to a minimum.” For his part, the Spanish Rafael Bengoa, an expert in public health and former adviser to the World Health Organization (WHO), warned of the third wave in Spain “if we fall into complacency” because “good circumstances for the virus” are created.

This theory is also supported by the doctor Elvis garcia, a professor at Harvard University, who predicts a third wave if we chill at Christmas. “I fear that we’re going in that direction. Now the figures are being contained and hopefully we will arrive in mid-December with somewhat more optimistic numbers. And what will that do? That people relax, that hoteliers press to open, etc. “, he explained in Cadena Ser. To avoid this pessimistic scenario, the expert raises the need to”clear messages from now on and firm measures which can be restrictive because otherwise in January and February we will be again like in September and October ”.

Ask for a quiet Christmas

The doctor thinks that Christmas could be “saved” and celebrated almost normally, but depending on “the number of deaths that we are willing to assume for shopping and partying”. Along these lines, he regretted that the rulers, in general, “are a bit at the mercy of popular, economic, and social pressures that make the measures taken not adequate from the point of view of public health.”

However, the responsibility also falls on the citizens, whom García advises to spend Christmas at home: “I understand that everyone has their own circumstances, but I would encourage people to spend quieter parties, at home, avoiding the crowds”. In fact, he has confirmed that he will not return to Spain to celebrate the holidays: “I’m not going to do it because for me the risk is not worth it.” “I think the important thing is to have a long look at this matter. Maybe we should miss this Christmas so we can have some next year”, Has sentenced.

Caution with vaccines

In the last week, hopeful information has come in on various candidate vaccines after Pfizer announce a 90% effectiveness Y Modern of a 94.5%. Also since Russia Y China they ensure high efficiency. On the other hand, Elvis García, who considers that we will have to live with the virus for a long period of time, asks for measure to assess the results because, although they are “very positive” news, can also be “a double edged sword. On the one hand, they give us hope the end is near. But on the other hand, we run the risk of trusting everything to the vaccine and stopping testing or screening, extending the situation that we already have until we can get vaccinated ”.

In addition to the lack of a sense of security that the vaccine could provide, many people who are not willing to wear it, 43% of Spanish, according to the latest report from the Center for Sociological Research (CIS). On this, the expert is clear that there will always be those who do not want to be vaccinated, “Which is something legal”. The problem is that if so many people go unvaccinated, herd immunity will not be achieved. From that point of view, heDeniers are really going to hurt if those numbers shown in a survey are real ”, he points out.

Faced with this situation, he advocates forcing vaccination: “I believe that if the regulatory agencies give the go-ahead vaccination should be mandatory due to the exceptional circumstances in which we live”. Of course, we should take into account the two problems that can generate this action: vaccine availability and especially the social resistance because of the “distrust” generated by “the politicization of this pandemic, misinformation and the process of development, supervision and efficacy of these vaccines, which has been faster than usual.” For this reason, he proposes that “the Government has to work in a education and transparency strategy from now on, six months from now, don’t wait until the last moment when the vaccine arrives. This must be approached in the medium term ”.