Contagions plummet in European countries with lockdowns and closures

Almost two weeks ago, at the end of October and beginning of November, in Europe there was so much concern about the very negative evolution of the contagion curve by coronavirus who had to bet on harsh and drastic measures in order to stop the second wave. Measurements like home confinement (without becoming like March) or the perimeter closure were the decisions to be made by a few countries, specifically France, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic, which were later joined by Belgium.

Other countries on the European continent refused, or at least tried to do so less aggressively or in localized areas, as is the case in Spain. But nevertheless, these four cases had an explosion of cases at the beginning of the month, with a very high incidence, and this led them to apply the aforementioned measures. And in view of the Johns Hopkins data, it can be seen that they have been effective.

It is true that countries like Germany, England, Austria or Poland have taken major restrictions later, and for that reason the impact is not reflected at the moment of the same in the evolution of the curve. However, in the case of Portugal, Italy or Spain, the measures have been more specific such as curfew, capacity limitations, or restrictions on shops and hotels, as well as very specific confinements.

Infection data support tough restrictions

In order to translate the measurements into the real effect, the best way to do it is with data, such as those published by Johns Hopkins, collected by Starting in the middle of October (when they reached the peak and measurements were taken) so far, Belgium has gone from more than 15,000 daily cases to around 5,000, the Netherlands from about 10,000 to just over 5,000, the Czech Republic from much more than 10,000 to just over 5,000 and France, which far exceeded 40,000 daily cases, it is already close to 20,000.

However, incidents in the last two weeks are still very high, as The Czech Republic has about 1,070 infections per 100,000 inhabitants, France about 798, Belgium has 781, and the Netherlands 493.

In contrast to this, in the last 14 days there is an increase of 8% of cases in Germany, 11% in the United Kingdom, 24% in Russia, 26% in Poland, 30% in Italy, 64% in Portugal, or up to 124% in Sweden.

Mortality still does not notice the impact of the measures

Although great strides are being made to reduce infections in the aforementioned countries, the mortality data are still worrying because they do not decrease significantly. Of course, at least they have stabilized.

With the same measure as for contagions, the case of France, for example, is quite significant, since in April it had 1,000 daily deaths and there are already more than 500 deaths a day, with an average of 69 people killed by coronavirus per 100,000 inhabitants in the last two weeks. In the Netherlands and the Czech Republic they have 50 and 60 respectively on average, and in Belgium, which joined later, it is still on the rise with 126 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants.

On the other hand, in the rest of the countries, from highest to lowest, can be observed big rises in the last two weeks, like that of 300% in Sweden, 158% in Austria, 152% in Italy, 146% in Germany, 117% in Switzerland or 109% in Portugal. Spain, for example, has experienced a rise of 56%.