File photo. Overview of the Central Cervecera plant in Sesquilé, in the department of Cundinamarca, Colombia, May 3, 2019. . / Carlos Julio Martínez

By Nelson Bocanegra

BOGOTÁ, Jul 30 (.) – The Colombian economy would have registered its biggest historical fall in the second quarter, impacted by the semi-paralysis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, which in turn has translated into lower consumption that would lead to inflation. lower, a . poll revealed Thursday.

According to the median of the query among 18 analysts, the Gross Domestic Product of the South American country would have plummeted 16% between April and June, compared to the same period last year.

Estimates ranged from a contraction of 8% to 18.6%. The state-run National Statistics Department (DANE) will publish the report for the second quarter on August 14.

« Clearly it is going to be the worst record in history, the hardest hit sectors are those that had the highest closings, such as trade, recreation, and services that are provided to the public directly, » said Camilo Pérez, study manager. of the Banco de Bogotá.

« But what is clear is that the impact is widespread, not only a brake on supply but also on demand, it is a very complex shock, » he added.

The Government decreed a quarantine from last March 25 that will last until August 30, seeking to contain the coronavirus infections, although throughout the period the authorities have gradually opened various sectors of the economy to soften the impact.

Meanwhile, the survey showed that the economy would contract 5.95% this year, more than the Government’s 5.5% projection, while in 2021 it would reach 4.35% growth.

Meanwhile, inflation expectations for this year fell dramatically to 1.80%, from the 2.21% shown in the survey last month, due to the slowdown in domestic consumption due to the pandemic.

If the sample median were met, it would be the lowest inflation in 65 years and it would be well below the punctual goal established by the Central Bank of 3%.

« The figures confirm that the disinflationary effects of some of the measures adopted in the context of the economic emergency have been stronger than anticipated, » said analyst Julio Romero, from Corficolombiana.

In July alone, consumer prices would fall 0.17%, accumulating an annual rise of 1.8%.

Along the same lines, inflation expectations for next year fell to 2.92%, compared to 3% in the June survey.

(Report by Nelson Bocanegra. Edited by Luis Jaime Acosta)

There were 408,449 accumulated cases, of which 48,550 are active, there are 45,361 deaths, and 267,147 patients have recovered.

There were 408,449 accumulated cases, of which 48,550 are active, there are 45,361 deaths, and 267,147 patients have recovered

There were 408,449 accumulated cases, of which 48,550 are active, there are 45,361 deaths, and 267,147 patients have recovered

There were 408,449 accumulated cases, of which 48,550 are active, there are 45,361 deaths, and 267,147 patients have recovered

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