CIS barometer | Tie between blocks for 4-M, with Cs out of the Assembly

The May 4 elections will be decided on the horn. All the polls point to that, and so does the CIS. The body predicts a tie between blocks, with Citizens out of the Assembly. The PP would win the elections, with 59 years, which added to the 9 of Vox would reach 68 seats. The same that the left would add: 38 from the PSOE, 20 from Más Madrid and 10 from Unidas Podemos. Ciudadanos, meanwhile, would not reach 5% of the vote to enter the Madrid parliament.

Another key is that 20.2% are undecided when there is one month left for the elections. In addition, according to the CIS, more than 75% of voters plan to go yes or yes to the polls. The participation in 2019 was 64.27%. The regional elections, in addition, will be held on a Tuesday, and for now, it will be a non-school day, but it will be a working day.

The PP of Isabel Díaz Ayuso would get 39.2% of the votes, followed by the PSOE. Ángel Gabilondo would keep 25.3%, and it would be second force. The third place would be held by Más Madrid, with 14.8%. The Iglesias effect could raise United Podemos to fourth position, with 8.7% of the votes, ahead of Vox, which would reach 5.4% (only four tenths above the electoral barrier). Cs would stay at 4.4%, which is not enough to win seats.

Regarding the valuation of leaders, precisely Pablo Iglesias is the worst seen by voters. The former vice president of the Government achieves a note of 3.2, behind the 3.6 obtained by the Vox candidate, Rocío Monasterio. Of all the candidates, only Ángel Gabilondo approved, who reached 5.6, and Mónica García, with 5.4. Behind them are Isabel Díaz Ayuso, with 4.9, and Edmundo Bal, with 4.3.

Highlights as one in four Madrid residents marks the president’s assessment as “very bad” (one out of ten), one of face three has that opinion about Monastery, and four out of ten think about Iglesias. Despite these data, Ayuso is the one with the highest rating (10) with almost one in every ten citizens of the region, while Edmundo Bal stands at 0.3% in this category.

Although she suspended, Ayuso is the candidate that the largest number of interviewees would prefer as regional president, 38.6%, followed by the socialist candidate (22.3%), while Monasterio and Bal share the last positions with 2.2%.

Ayuso herself explained this Monday that if she manages to govern after the May 4 elections, she will have a “smaller government”, while also indicating that she is willing recover in its Executive the leader of Citizens Marta Rivera de la Cruz, who has been until now its Minister of Culture.

“Honestly, yes. It is too early to talk about who I am going to include or not in the Government but I have a very good opinion of her. She is a person who has been absolutely loyal to her party,” Ayuso stressed when asked specifically if she was will recover in its Executive. Of the Cs advisers in the coalition, she was the one with whom the president was most in tune.

Ayuso herself valued the barometer. “It is the first time I have seen a survey that gives Gabilondo something above me. I do not want to think that it is a survey made by the PSOE Government on a PSOE candidate … maybe yes.” ironized the PP candidate. In fact, from the national leadership of the popular they have not valued the survey, which they qualify as a survey of the “Redondo factory”, alluding to the chief of staff of the Prime Minister. In addition, he has once again defended the resignation of the director of this body, José Félix Tezanos.

Gabilondo also made an appeal to the voters of Cs after learning the results of the CIS. “I am speaking directly to the voters of Ciudadanos, who according to the survey that we have received right now, from the CIS, will not obtain a single deputy from their list,” recalled the socialist candidate, before recalling that “it is in their hands to decide which option they want to make”. He urges them to choose whether to “go back to the old ways of supporting the PP Government again, oriented towards Vox, which wants to put Madrid on the ultra-right line.”

A very high willingness to participate

75.2% will go yes or yes to vote. Participation will be key and three-quarters of the people from Madrid are clear that they will go to the polls next 4-M. If the CIS data is maintained, participation will be eleven points higher than in 2019.

Monica Garcia, the least known. The More Madrid candidate is the one with the least degree of knowledge among voters (57.7%). Ayuso, meanwhile, is the best known to voters.

Vox, the party that most people “would never vote for.” The CIS also reflects that 56.6% of citizens would never vote for Vox. This data is followed by United We Can, for which 49.2% of voters would not opt ​​in any case.

The ideas, the most important. 60.1% of Madrid residents will choose their vote based on the party’s ideas and 48.4% will decide based on the electoral program. 36.2% will vote based on the candidate.

Almost half decide before the campaign. The electoral campaign does not play a fundamental role when deciding the vote. 48.6% of Madrilenians say they already choose before it starts. There are 25.6% who decide during the campaign or at the end.