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Carlos Peña: The GDP crisis: could it have been prevented?

Carlos PenaCarlos Peña Source: Courtesy

There is a phrase from the writer Mario Benedetti: when the storm passes and the roads knead and we are survivors of a collective shipwreck, with a tearful heart and a blessed destiny we will feel happy just to be alive.

Is it what we are living in these times? We are in the worst crisis in history where what has been achieved over the years now seems to be taking us to the past.

Making a summary of this storm and first GDP drop In the era of Q4, it was the pride of power where the budget is allocated to the obsolete, a refinery that will never finish generating the country, a Mayan train where there is no tourism, and an airport that is flooded, together with these three projects We would have the budget for vaccines for all Mexicans and allocate enough to dedicate to what the Constitution tells you is the priority and is social health.

Another drop that will hit GDP these days were the blackouts and lack of Natural Gas, There are sectors such as the automotive industry that have decided to cut production, reduce consumption and affect more than 1,110 companies and more than 200,000 customers, damages of 7 billion pesos, it is necessary to specify the importance of the northern area and especially the area northeast of Mexico that is equivalent to more than 50 percent of the country’s GDP.

Now that the United States restricted the sale and distribution of Natural Gas to Mexico due to the priority that this service gives to its own consumption and to the consumption of its country, it has pressured gas companies in Mexico to recommend food and industrial sectors to reduce the consumption, slowing growth and the production processes that give growth.

Could it have been prevented?

What I can tell you, the GDP can be protected so that the falls are less “strong” as long as there are factors of strategies and financial analysis in which the Q4 did not know how to anticipate priorities that the country really requires, such as the futures of energy among others.

If the three Q4 projects are so important, it is the IMF to inject and prioritize health, which incidentally only injects less than 1 percent of GDP compared to other countries that allocated three or up to six percent of GDP in the pandemic.

What does this crisis leave us? Without a doubt, look for renewable and sustainable energy before a planet that requires a climate change accommodation and may require piping.

Until next time!

This is an opinion column. The expressions used here are the sole responsibility of the person signing them and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of El Financiero.