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BNY Mellon IM News & Views: Macro, Blockchain and Inflation

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Andy Warwick share your keys:

Thanks to the rapid response of governments worldwide, the rebound in indicators has been “much higher than any of us could imagine in March 2020.”

“Portfolios will need to be altered based on which of these scenarios ends up becoming a reality. This is one of the reasons why investors should adopt a dynamic approach and respond to changes in the data. “

The balance sheets of banks and companies (especially in the United States) show great strength, something incredible if we consider to what extent the economy has closed in recent months. This should lead to a fairly quick recovery. “

Short term, However, the rise in inflation indicators continues to attract investors’ attention. “In part, this is due to a skyrocketing savings rate in the United States and an explosion in the money supply,” Warwick said. “It suggests that pent-up consumer demand will lead to sustained inflation. This demand coincides with an insufficient supply, as bottlenecks caused worldwide by the pandemic lead to shortages of key materials. “

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opportunities_inversion_bolsa

Uli Gerhard he thinks that:

“We believe that any eventual inflationary shock will be transitory and could be cushioned by potential tax increases designed to address the heavy public spending implemented during the pandemic and the resulting accumulation of government indebtedness. Regardless of the above, we believe the good news is that there is significant spare capacity in economies, especially in Europe. “

Although the markets of fixed income (including short-term high yield credit) struggled during the March pullback last year, Gerhard sees growing interest in the sector from investors: “Capital flows into high yield debt have been very positive this year, and we continue to see inflows due to income that these assets can contribute in the short term. This is not going to change, nor do I think we will see a significant divestment unless the credit cycle changes phase, which we do not anticipate for the next 12 to 18 months “

“Now that heenvironmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) factors are coming more to the fore, it will be increasingly difficult to justify investment in the oil and gas sectors, and companies active in them will find it more difficult to find financing. This means that certain companies in these areas will go bankrupt or default on their payments, and others will have to go to other markets and pay a significant premium to finance themselves. “

Portada2 / blockchainPortada2 / blockchain

Portada2 / blockchain

On Blockchain, Erik swords tells us:

We believe that blockchain is one of the most disruptive technologies to emerge since the widespread adoption of the internet, affecting all sectors and regions. We have no doubt that the global economy is moving rapidly towards a digital reality, and this technology is crucial to its progress in this direction. The blockchain opportunity is here. Now.

Broadly speaking, the blockchain is a database that offers its users – or “network participants” – a way to transfer and record information securely without a central intermediary or manual reconciliation. This revolutionary capability can offer unique ways to cut costs, eliminate inefficiencies, and reduce fraud. In our opinion, it represents a paradigm shift in ecosystems that depend on trust.

The BNY Mellon Blockchain Innovation Fund It differs from its counterparts in that it tries to invest in the entire blockchain ecosystem, rather than concentrating on cryptocurrencies. We believe this breadth is capable of delivering higher levels of risk-adjusted returns and lower long-term volatility versus more crypto-centric alternatives.

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