-It seems that the Ibex 35 stagnates in the short term. Is it due to a seasonal pattern typical of summer? How do you see it in the long term?
-We are pigeonholed between the 8,630 and 8,840 area, which would be the first resistance to overcome. The key for me would be to break 8,914-8,915, which would be to break the 61.8% Fibonacci of the last leg of the decline and that could make us think that the most likely would be the return in V towards the previous highs.
Although we are in a negative seasonal period … normally from the month of August to the end of September the annualized profitability of the European market is the worst seasonal period of the year.
Members of the Fed have said that, seeing that the economy is recovering, despite clearly seeing a growth ceiling in the US, if the labor market recovers between this month and the next, they could start tapering in a way anticipated.
The Euro Stoxx has already recovered 61.8% Fibonacci and is trying to return to highs. The normal thing would be for the Ibex 35 to accompany the European market but for that it would have to exceed 8,914-8,915. At the moment there is a risk of additional falls or some additional lateral movement. If it lost 8,630, the next support would be the low of July 19, in the 8,250 area. Caution at the moment and it would be necessary to be more defensive and conservative.
-After the publication of results for the first semester, Banco Santander is positioned as the leader by profitability. How is the value according to technical analysis? What about the rest of the banks?
-Situation similar to the Ibex 35. A correction that began in June, has led Santander towards the 2.88 area. He is trying to recover but is still in a lateral range. The logical thing would be a break to the upside seeing that we are trading above the long-term average, but for that we would have to recover the average of 50 that passes around 3.16 and then the area of 3.21, the first major resistance.
You have to be cautious now at Banco Santander; as long as it is above 2.88, the trend continues to rise. If it loses that level, it could be proposed that it was a first bearish impulse, rebound and then activated a second. If it exceeds 3.21 the risk would come to an end. The key is for it to exceed the 3.26 area, which would be the 61.8% Fibonacci of the last leg of the decline. If it exceeds it, the most normal thing would be to think about the V-lap, up to 3.51. At the moment, a certain lack of definition in Banco Santander.
BBVA is faster in terms of increases. It is the bank with the greatest strength at the moment. It just broke highs. If we think that economic growth is going to continue, banks should do well. The problem is that bond yields are falling sharply, causing the real market interest rate to drop. If the business of banking is to lend money, you want higher interest rates to be more profitable. The trend is up in BBVA, important support at 4.85. Although we must remember that seasonality is negative and in this period the defenders are the ones who do it best.
Banco Sabadell: first resistance at 0.60-0.70, key support 0.49-0.80. Above that support, the trend remains bullish.
In the case of Bankinter, support at 4.06 and it continues to have a theoretical target activated by a double bottom towards around 4.96, which would most likely be fulfilled. Although it is a bit overbought and could stay on the side.
At Caixabank a little more weak; resistance at 2.65 and support at 2.35. It is still in an uptrend but with significant resistance. The medium-term average passes through 2.56 and then 2.65.
In Liberbank corrective phase losing the averages and losing the previous support but not definitely because it leaves a candle that can be returned. The trend has not been lost. Any correction is quite important. To think that it could be recovered again, it would be necessary to recover all the averages that pass through the 0.30 area.
In Unicaja, support at what was the previous resistance, at 0.74 and resistance at 0.84-0.8.
For the moment, the trend in the banking sector is upward, but we must not forget that there are certain doubts about economic growth, about the Delta variant and about bond yields, which are still very low.
-What are the most profitable stocks in the short to enter in August?
-I would wait for the Ibex to recover the 8,915 area before entering any value because that would confirm that there are favorable winds.
On a general level, if we look at defensive stocks, we have Cellnex, which is still very strong. It is true that it has broken a lateral range at the top, so the most normal thing would be that breaking that range has marked us a goal towards the area of previous highs, which will complete that V lap. Support at 53.02.
Enagas. It triggers a second bullish momentum although it is now overbought so I would wait to see if there is any further correction. If it returned to the 18.90 area, the theoretical objective per second bullish impulse would be around 21.17 and could be considered as a value to watch, not to enter.
Inmobiliaria Colonial has activated a target per second upward impulse that it has not yet completed and, in addition, it has broken up a kind of double bottom lateral range that, in principle, would mark a theoretical target towards the area of previous highs at 9.62. Then we would have a target per second bullish impulse around 10.50 and as long as it does not lose the support of 8.40, the trend will continue to be positive in Colonial.
Almirall is a value that has fallen a lot and is based on a support zone that is the average. We see that it has a target activated by double bottom towards the area of 17.80; after the last strong correction it has left a very close support and it is not ruled out that it would be lost.
ArcelorMittal is more cyclical but it is showing a lot of strength although it is overbought and the ideal would be to wait for a correction towards 27.64.
-Do you see an opportunity in the continuous market?
-Rovi Laboratories. It has fulfilled the theoretical objective due to the rupture of a channel. It has corrected slightly, it holds the 50 average, the momentum indicator is turning higher and the trend remains intact. Seasonal period in which pharmaceutical companies do well and if we add the delta variant of covid, they will continue to do well.
Reig Jofre. It is trying to rebuild on the upside and the key would be for it to generate a succession of rising highs again, to recover the 5.50 area. The average of 50 is turning upwards, it has broken the average of 200 also upwards, a momentum indicator trying to turn positive … we would have to wait for a succession of highs and lows but it is a value to watch in a summer in the that volatility is higher.
Lar España is doing very well. It supports the mean zone, is recovering to the upside and is generating rising highs. It is a value that can withstand the situation we are in well.
Ideally, if no portfolio has been generated, wait until October. Now the normal thing is to hold the positions and not add more, due to the risk of lower volume and greater volatility that exists in negative seasonal periods. But if the Ibex recovers 8,915 we could be more optimistic.