June 11, 2020 6:11 PM | With information from .
15 minutes. The protests against racism in the United States (USA) reinforced the fall in the polls of President Donald Trump.
It remains to be seen if the energy in the streets translates into votes for his rival in the November elections, Joe Biden, a candidate who enthuses few young people.
At one of the protests in Washington over the death of African-American George Floyd, a young man in a blue mask was riding his bicycle through the crowd with a plea written on a piece of cardboard: “Remember this in November.”
The banner summed up well the longing for the Democratic Party, a historically progressive voting bloc but whose turnout declined in the 2016 elections from the previous decade.
The protests were repeated in more than 700 cities and towns in all US states, including mostly white or conservative towns.
Trump campaign concern
The move raised concerns in Trump’s re-election campaign. And it is that, in the last weeks, its support in key states like Arizona, Ohio, Florida and Georgia was seen to decline.
Trump started 2020 with considerable options to prevail in the November elections. The first is due to the economic expansion the country was enjoying, the inherent advantage of being a sitting president, and the nature of the US electoral system, which centers the battle on a handful of key states.
However, the arrival of the coronavirus in the United States and its impact on the economy complicated the outlook for Trump, It must now also face the wave of protests against racism.
Does Biden have an advantage?
“With COVID-19, the economic decline and protests about racism and the police, I’d say Biden has a 60% chance of winning“said Zoltan Hajnal. The man is a professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego.
Although the protests sparked a debate about racism that could influence the electoral outcome, Hajnal believes that the impact will likely be “marginal” unless the protests last “long enough.”
“These elections are still in the air”, stressed the expert on the elections of November 3.
According to a poll released this week by CNN, only 38% of Americans approve of Trump.
This would be his worst score in a year and a half. This percentage is similar to that recorded by former presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, who lost their reelection campaigns.
Trump’s strategy is to rescue the slogan of “law and order” from his 2016 campaign, which was also used by former presidents Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan and which works well among the 30% of voters who unconditionally support him.
However, Trump needs to mobilize a broader coalition, making it difficult for the iron-clad and nuanced slogan of “law and order” to succeed in the current context.
The hope of Biden’s campaign is for the movement spurred by Floyd’s death to convince young people who flood the streets and African-Americans to go to the polls.
But Biden barely sparks enthusiasm among voters 18-29, who mostly backed their main rival, progressive Senator Bernie Sanders, in the primaries.
As for African-Americans, many are concerned about Biden’s past as the author of a 1994 crime law that helped reinforce the current problem of mass incarceration in the United States. This standard disproportionately affects blacks and Latinos.
“Not entirely convincing”
“I don’t think the Biden campaign is in as good a position as they think of black voters,” said New York president of the “Black Lives Matter” group, Hawk Newsome.
In 2016, Newsome decided not to vote in the presidential election because Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton “did nothing” to “inspire” her.
The man believes that this time he will speak because he cannot bear “Donald Trump’s Four More Years Idea”.
However, he believes that Biden “it has not accepted a platform that appeals to black people”.
“A lot of people know that (Biden) has acted against blacks in the past, so they will have to choose between the lesser of two evils“Newsome summed up.
That lack of enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate may result in lower participation, which, if it occurs in key states and is not compensated by the mobilization of other demographic groups, could favor Trump.