But analysts expect the effect on retail stations to be seen in the next two or three weeks, as importers of the fuel, such as state-owned Pemex, have to refill their inventories.
“Right now the market faces different scenarios about how soon the refineries can return to their normal operating levels (…). The expectation was that by this Friday the weather situation improves and the refinery operations will start again over the weekend, but until the weekend the refinery operators will be able to observe the damage and see if they return to their activities ”, he says Daniel Rodríguez, senior editor of OPIS.
In recent months, refineries in the Gulf of the United States had already reduced their production capacity due to the drop in demand due to the coronavirus pandemic and increased their fuel inventories. The latter, analysts estimate, could lessen the impact to meet demand.
“This is not a very bad time to have a situation of this type, so to speak, due to excess inventories, but even with the excess we do expect the price to rise and above all because the trend has been upward in recent days. ”, Says Adrián Calcaneo, from IHS Markit.
If weather conditions improve and refining complexes resume, gasoline prices could return to the levels seen before the Texas emergency, albeit with a slight rise due to other factors.
The increase in international oil prices, the optimism raised by vaccines against COVID-19 and an increase in the quality of gasoline so that it can be used in the summer – so that it does not evaporate so quickly – will also affect a highest quotation of the molecule.
An increase in the price of gasoline could go against the current discourse of the federal administration, which has promised not to increase the price at which fuels are sold.
During the first week of this month, the federal government decided to apply the fiscal stimulus to regular gasoline again, after almost a year of not doing so. The rise in the price of fuels could lead the current administration to apply new stimuli to fuels to maintain prices.