The distortions in the prices of the exchange rate that the stocks generate influenced the reduction of exports. And just at the time of year -between April and July-, with the liquidation of the thick harvest, when even the BCRA used to add foreign currency, the fall in the sale of agro-dollars has become a factor that puts more pressure on the market.
A Eco Go analysis on monthly settlement in 2020 showed that month by month the average contracted with respect to the average of the last three years.
Between 2017 and 2019 the average sales for January was $ 1.9 billion, while in January 2020 it fell to $ 1.6 billion. The average for the month of February in the last three years was $ 1.3 billion, and this year they reached just $ 800 million. Last March, US $ 1.1 billion were sold, when the average for the 2017-2019 period was US $ 1.4 billion. Finally, in April, sales reached $ 1.5 billion, below the average of $ 1.7 billion in the last three years.
The reasons for the decrease are several: less stock, the exchange rate increases wheel after wheel while the peso rate falls and the gap between the official dollar and the parallels grows.
There is friction about the reopening plans in Europe that tries to get out of the hyper-restricted quarantine, the temperature rises between the United States. and China, airline bailouts are approaching and European stock markets, Wall Street futures and oil open the month with a pronounced negative
SOLEDAD & nbspNAVARRO
“They are going to try to stretch the clearance to the maximum. More if they can finance themselves in pesos at low rates like now to pay their expenses, “he said. Martín Saud, senior trader at Balanz. “The low rate in pesos favors cheap financing and delays settlement,” agreed another analyst.
Martín Vauthier, director of Eco Go, remembered that in December the field increased the liquidation of stock anticipating the rise in withholdings. “There were fewer inventories for this year. But also in January and February, the BCRA placed the dollar higher and higher while lowering the peso rate.”
Third, Vauthier mentioned the exchange gap. He argued that “the record with liqui and the record MEP dollar have a very important effect: they discourage operations.”
Also the gap referred Diego Martínez Burzaco, economist at Global Investor: “Now the thick harvest is coming and they need to sell to finance working capital for the new harvest. In the last weeks of May we will see more sales, but if the gap remains high or widens, the incentive to settle will be less and less; just what is necessary and fair. “
On Friday Ciara – CEC reported the data on the April settlement along with its version on the contraction in sales. The balance of last month was US $ 1,524,445,457, and the amount settled since the beginning of the year totaled US $ 5,017,586,918. They recognized that the accumulated of the 1st quarter of 2020 is 17.8% lower than the same period of 2019.
The cereal chambers explained that it was due to “the effects of compulsory social isolation, the advance sale of grains by producers at the end of 2019, difficulties in the movement of grain transport and supply that affected terminals and processors, and recently the unpublished and historical downpipe of the Paraná, which hinders the transit and loading of ships in the Gran Rosario, as well as international instability due to COVID-19 “.