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a virologist warns that Uruguay entered an exponential phase and that cases may skyrocket

According to virologist Santiafo Mirazo, Uruguay is going through a « frank acceleration in the number of cases » of coronavirus Credit: El País

MONTEVIDEO.

– Virologist Santiago Mirazo

pointed out yesterday

that Uruguay is going through a «frank acceleration in the number of cases» of

coronavirus

.

As the number of daily infections is « doubling every 15 days », he estimated that in the next two weeks « we can have about 400 cases a day and already entering the orange zone of Harvard University, which implies restrictions »

he said in reference to the chromatic scale designed by the American study house.

For Harvard University there are four levels of risk: green, yellow, orange and red. Green is for those countries that have less than one daily case of coronavirus per 100,000 people. The yellow risk is for those who have between 1 and 9 daily cases per 100,000. This is followed by the orange alert (between 10 and 24 cases per 100,000 people per day) and red (more than 25 cases per day per 100,000).

In this sense, Mirazo indicated in dialogue with VTV Noticias that «We must take the measures before having to take mandatory restrictions, which we want to avoid for all the cost they have», and added: « We are entering an accelerated phase of contagion, which is the area called orange. »

The heat map created by the Harvard Global Health Institute on coronavirus risk levels Credit: https://globalepidemics.org

He also indicated that Uruguay is in an « exponential phase » and not a « linear » increase in patients due to the virus, so the number of infections « will continue to worsen », which will depend on « the measures we take today ».

He further noted that the positivity rate has gone from 0.5%, 0.8% to 5% on certain days, as well as that « practically every day » new outbreaks are identified, and that the number of contacts for each infected increased, so the ability to test and trace the disease is « forced ».

“Every 200 new cases in Uruguay involves tracking about 6000, 7000 (people). It is an extremely high number that makes the risk of losing some of these cases high as well, « the virologist graphed.

To reverse this situation and « flatten » the curve, Mirazo suggested that the number of contacts should be « restricted ». « It has been shown in prestigious magazines that the reduction of repeated contacts, at the work level, of social frequencies, can delay the growth of the curve by 30%, » he said.

Mirazo works in the Virology section of the Institute of Biological Chemistry of the Faculty of Sciences (UdelaR). He has a Doctorate in Biological Sciences (UdelaR-Pedeciba) and a Master’s Degree in Biological Sciences (UdelaR-Pedeciba), among others, according to the curriculum of the National Research and Innovation Agency (ANII) and the National System of Researchers (SNI ).

The Country / GDA

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