The I veto the bears ends in the Spanish stock market two months later. Then volatility has subsided, but prices are still far from recovering. A quarter of the Ibex 35 is trading at record lows, so any attack by the shorts could mean an open door to a deeper crash.
The de-escalation of the retaining wall against the worst effects of the coronavirus has also reached the Spanish stock market. However, seven values of the Ibex 35 have not only failed to dodge its worst measures of March, but have delved into them until reaching unknown lows for their graphics. Together they represent 24.5% of the weight of the Spanish selective and 20% of your entire basket of values. Most of them are banks and many of them are also ‘blue chips’.
Of these seven values, there is one that in addition has been unable to break free of bearish pressure in the two months that these unwanted investors have been prohibited from formulating, increasing or reviewing their investment positions. Is Mediaset Spain, which still has 1.4% of its capital in the hands of Adelphi Capital.
Setbacks and ‘penny stocks’
So far this year, the media group loses 31% of its capitalization. A pullback that awakens the appetite of analysts, who give it a bullish potential of 50% and 51% purchase recommendations compared to only 15% sale. However, the obstacles he has encountered for the merger with his Italian parent company and the drop in advertising revenue that the confinement has brought weigh on his chart.
Among the seven values at historical lows that this Tuesday the firewall established by the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) loses, Bankia it is the one with the worst prospects. Below the euro per share, relegated to the ‘penny stock’ category, the consensus of analysts hardly sees in its shares the potential to reach 1.17 euros per share.
Furthermore, only 20.8% of analysts who follow its evolution recommend taking positions in their capital, compared to 37.5% recommend their sale. Some rather ominous forecasts for a value that leaves a sound 53% of its value in the stock market since the year of the coronavirus began.
More vertical is the setback that the Sabadell: 71% in this 2020. Of the 24 analysts who closely monitor its trajectory, only two perceive this decline as a buying opportunity. Instead, the bulk of the market (62.5%) opts for keep waiting for prices closer to 0.49 euros per share where its current consensus target price is located.
Delinquency and negative rates
The list of financial values in minimum prices of its stock market trajectory is completed by two international giants and the leader in the domestic market: Santander Bank, BBVA and CaixaBank. In all cases, the free fall scenario opens up on the horizon with graphs that have a consensus potential of 50%, 37% and 41%, respectively.
Although the European Central Bank (ECB) has not been slow to come to the rescue of the economy of the Eurozone to greatly facilitate liquidity and, with it, the fluidity of credit, the fear of a rebound in delinquencies and a scenario of negative types with no end in sight, hits the sector. So much so that the bank could already be facing its worst year since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in terms of rating cuts, according to a recent report by the Fitch agency.
The list of values that will have to fit the return of the bears in the zone of historical minimums is completed with another heavyweight of the Ibex 35, one of its historical ‘blue chips’. Telefónica It enjoys a potential bullish consensus of more than 50% for its shares, with 17 buy recommendations (51.5% of the total) compared to only five for sale (15.1%).
For very little, just a few dozen cents in some cases, four other listed companies are spared to swell this list of candidates to be targets of attack of the shorts. Others have managed to take more advantage, but only in recent days encouraged by support measures specific to their sector or the raw materials rebound associated with de-escalation.
Very close to supports
These are the metallurgical Acerinox, the airline group IAG, the socimi Merlin Properties and the oil company Repsol. None of them has recognized bearish among their capital at the close of business on Monday. However, it should be remembered that the CNMV no longer disseminates full short film counts, but only publishes positions that by themselves exceed 0.5% of the capital of a listed company.
Despite the lifting of the prohibition for the formulation of short positions, what still in force throughout the European Union it is mandatory that any position is reported to the national supervisor from 0.1% of the capital.
In this sense, if in the coming weeks a new veto comes without apparently a great speculative siege, several managers point out that bearish harassment would most likely come from investors with more modest portfolios. A strategy aimed at scratching some profitability in a market dominated by volatility with the focus on securities so punished that they lack ground to their decline or so expensive that a certain altitude sickness can begin to affect them.