According to the Austral University survey, the recovery and significant rise in the international prices of soybeans, corn and wheat, with their local correlate, is an important factor in changing the expectations of producers Source: LA NACION – Credit : Marcelo Manera
After the historic low last June, the confidence of the producers is recovering. While it still shows values below 100, which indicates that negative responses outnumber positive ones, a process of regaining confidence seems to have begun.
The data was reflected by the Agribusiness and Food Center of the Austral University after conducting surveys of 400 producers whose gross production value is equal to or greater than US $ 200,000 and where for the first time since June 2020 the Future Expectations Index exceeds the Present Conditions Index in value.
«Undoubtedly the recovery and significant rise in the international prices of soybeans, corn and wheat, with their correlation in local prices, are an important factor in changing the expectations of producers, despite concerns about the climate factor », explains the report.
The weather has become an important player at this time of year. In the November survey, 70% of producers perceive the year as very dry / somewhat dry, with values similar to those of September. Only 30% say they have normal humidity conditions.
«This climatic situation translates into expectations of lower yields in all crops. In wheat, where the harvest is advancing and the chances of recovery are very low, 63% of producers expect to have lower yields. For the summer crops that are being sown, the expectation of obtaining lower yields in both soybeans (59%) and corn (56%) prevails, « he said.
Regarding economic margins, due to the increase in international and local prices, the equation is reversed: «41% of soybean producers and 35% of corn producers estimate that they have better or much better margins. In wheat the situation is somewhat different, while 41% of producers see expectations of worse or much worse margins ”.
At Present Conditions Index, which includes the current financial situation compared to a year ago and the opportunity to make investments in fixed assets, it reaches 76 points, 2.7% higher than the previous measurement, but 18.7% higher than a year ago.
And as for the Future Expectations Index, which includes perceptions about the future of the agricultural exploitation and the agricultural sector in general, in time horizons of one and five years, « Future expectations improve approximately 23% compared to the last measurement and a similar improvement is also observed compared to the values of November 2019 ».
On the other hand, the government’s decision to promote a temporary reduction in withholdings on flour and oil exports seems to have been far from obtaining the expected results, « Since 64% of the producers stated that they had no impact on their decisions, 27% of the producers sold less than expected and only 9% increased their sales as a result of these measures. »
The prospects for livestock are very good, according to what the producers say about breeding, rearing and fattening, but the situation changes with regard to fattening to corral.
«Pasture breeding, rearing and fattening show very promising profitability prospects, between good and very good, greater than 90% in all cases. This panorama is reversed for feedlots, where only 27% have good expectations for 2021, and more than 70% of producers foresee a regular or bad year. The low profitability expected in corral fattening is mainly due to the poor price ratio of fat steer / calf (which is accentuated in October / November) and also in the very poor price ratio kilo of steer / kilo of corn, the result of a delay in the price of the fat farm and a strong rise in the price of corn », says the study.
The report is made up of the different responses of producers that have to do with their agricultural economic reality. Values above 100 express that positive perceptions outweigh negative ones. Meanwhile, below 100 means that negative perceptions are higher than positive.
According to the criteria of